Commodities Update Key questions on the closure of the East-West pipeline The attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could impact up to 4% of global oil supply and each week of the pipeline’s closure could knock up to 0.3%-pts off Saudi Arabia’s GDP. Uncertainty about... 14th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response The end of the beginning of the energy crisis? 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Oil: what alternatives are there to the Strait of Hormuz? Alternative export routes – pipelines and other terminals that bypass the Strait of Hormuz – are operating at close to full capacity, diverting around 4m bpd of oil exports. In total, that’s... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Five Key Questions on the Strait of Hormuz Following the effective “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of renewed conflict in the Middle East, this Update answers five key questions about the potential impacts on global energy... 2nd March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Iran instability a bigger headache than Venezuela The risks to the oil market from growing instability in Iran are much greater than in Venezuela. This is not only because Iran produces much more oil itself, but there are also a greater number of... 14th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update OPEC+ desire to pump will lead to oil prices falling OPEC+ seems to be cautiously optimistic on the strength of the oil market as it remains committed to unwinding voluntary output cuts. However, we suspect it will become increasingly clear that the oil... 8th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The implications of a Saudi Arabia oil market pivot Oil prices have now fallen by about 18% since ‘Liberation Day’, and one could make the case for them being in oversold territory – particularly if US tariffs are rowed back further, as we expect. But... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the plunge in oil prices mean for EMs? Some oil producers, such as the UAE and Kuwait, should be able to easily weather a period of low oil prices. But a sustained decline in prices would be a bigger challenge for Saudi Arabia, which would... 9th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: Egypt one year on – A progress report on the big policy shift 6th March 2025, 11:00AM GMT March 6 will mark one year since Egypt embarked on a dramatic shift back to orthodox policymaking. So far, the authorities have stuck to most of their pledges.
Commodities Update The geopolitics that will shape energy markets in 2025 While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025? 27th November 2024, 3:00PM GMT An oil market that has mostly looked through a year of Middle East conflict now faces fresh, Trump-shaped, uncertainty.
Commodities Update Trump, Middle East geopolitics & the oil market It seems likely that the US will step up sanctions enforcement on Iran’s oil trade, though the oil market should be able to absorb this. The much greater risk for oil prices is a more dramatic shift... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update It is when, not if, Saudi Arabia opens the oil taps Although the focus in the oil market has shifted to geopolitical risks and potential short-term supply disruptions, just as importantly, we think the possibility that Saudi Arabia could open the... 14th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Energy Update OPEC+ to turn on the taps, oil prices to fall in 2025 At long last, OPEC+ outlined a plan on Sunday for when and how members would unwind the large production curbs currently in place. We assume that this plan is followed through and that output... 4th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Global Economics Shipping Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document... 25th January 2024 · 1 min read
Event MENA Drop-In: Can Egypt get its IMF deal back on track? 13th September 2023, 11:00AM BST Reports are swirling of yet more delay to the latest review of Egypt’s IMF deal, the central bank is preparing to meet in a pressurised market environment and speculation about a sovereign default
