Asia Economics Update Vietnam: limited impact from scrapping two-child policy The abolition of Vietnam’s controversial two-child policy will not lead to a sharp rise in the number of children being born, and will have only a small economic impact. 5th June 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update India will leave Japan (and Germany) trailing in its wake Debate around whether or not India’s economy has surpassed Japan’s in size is raging, but the big picture is that India was always going to overtake Japan – and also Germany – given its positive... 28th May 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why even the worst-hit cities look likely to recover The pandemic-driven reduction in office-based footfall in city centres has weighed heavily on many urban environments, particularly in the US. But if cities can find ways to align incentives with... 22nd April 2025 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is Indonesia taking a wrong turn under Prabowo? Prabowo Subianto came into office in Indonesia in October pledging to raise economic growth to 8%, up from around the 5% rate it has been stuck at recently. However, the policy changes he has... 5th March 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update The rise of the Indian tourist India’s outbound tourism market is poised to become one of the world’s largest over the coming years. The Maldives and the UAE are arguably the biggest beneficiaries, though Oman and Thailand are well... 27th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Which sectors will benefit most from AI? Artificial intelligence (AI) is still not being used very widely outside of the ICT sector. But we remain confident that, in time, it has the potential to be used across all sectors and industries. 19th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update US continues to lead the way on our AI index A year ago, we developed our proprietary AI Economic Impact Index, which ranks major economies according to their ability to realise the benefits of AI. We have updated that index, and the big picture... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Don’t lose hope of AI’s economic potential This summer’s falls in the share prices of companies involved in producing AI chips have prompted some to question whether the AI revolution will be quite the game-changer it has been built up to be... 26th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Green tech and chips will remain key battlegrounds Several advanced economies have raised tariffs on imports of green technologies and semiconductors from China to address their growing trade deficits in these goods and tackle a perceived strategic... 3rd September 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Urbanisation won’t be a key growth driver In its new urbanisation plan, China’s government is setting its targets low. The goal of reaching a 70% urbanisation rate in five years’ time could be met with far smaller increases in the urban... 2nd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact... 30th July 2024 (Updated 12th December 2024) · 5 mins read
Long Run Update Will ageing populations drag on productivity? As well as adversely impacting the growth of the workforce, ageing populations may also have a small negative impact on productivity. There is plenty of scope for this to be offset by a positive boost... 29th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Scepticism warranted on China’s capital market reforms We think the capital market reforms announced as part of China’s Third Plenum won’t be enough to reinvigorate China’s equities, which we think will provide disappointing long-run returns. 26th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update UN projections point to slower global population growth The downward revisions to global population growth in the UN’s latest projections won’t have a major bearing on our long-term GDP growth forecasts. That’s because a lot of the revision was driven by... 16th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update AI and friendshoring boosting (some) Asian exporters Exports from Taiwan, Korea and Vietnam have surged over the past 18 months, thanks to strong demand for AI-related products and friendshoring. In contrast, shipments from the rest of the region have... 10th July 2024 · 3 mins read
