Commodities Update 5 key questions about AI and demand for commodities This Update examines five key questions about AI-related demand for commodities, and the economic consequences of potential future disruptions to their supply. 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Takaichi unlikely to curb immigration much Concerns that new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will drastically reduce immigration inflows seem overdone. But we suspect that the increase in immigration inflows over the past decade will come to a... 19th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to EM elections in 2026 After a fairly quiet 2025, the EM electoral calendar looks busy again in 2026. The run-up to votes could add to fiscal strains in Brazil, Colombia and Hungary. Meanwhile, there is a risk of... 18th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Unpacking the key unknowns that will drive peak oil A growing divergence in views on the trajectory of oil demand over the next 25 years – and whether demand will even reach a peak during this period – partly reflects the reduction in political support... 17th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update De-risking EU supply chains will be a slow process The EU has prioritised becoming more self-sufficient in the production of critical raw materials. While it is making progress, it is likely to remain heavily dependent on China and China-aligned... 5th November 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update AI offers several upsides to India despite BPO disruption Recent lay-off announcements from several major IT firms in response to advances in artificial intelligence (AI) offer a stark glimpse of the technology’s potential to disrupt India’s business process... 29th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A primer on AI and electricity demand While data centres will remain a small share of global electricity consumption, the uneven spread of their power demands means their influence on power markets will be felt much more acutely in... 28th October 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China's Five-Year Plan: Staying the course on industrial policy China’s leadership has just wrapped up a closed-door meeting to discuss the upcoming Five-Year Plan. The message from the post-meeting communique is one of policy continuity, with technological... 23rd October 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China’s catch-up is faltering A weak currency and sustained deflation mean that China’s economy is on course to shrink as a share of the global economy for a fourth consecutive year, when measured at market exchange rates. China... 2nd October 2025 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The great pension switch into equities: for richer or poorer? The flipside of pension plans’ waning demand for very long-dated bonds has been their waxing demand for equities. Indeed, in the case of US private defined contribution (DC) plans, the share of... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Why r* is still heading to 2% Recent bond market movements suggest that equilibrium real interest rates may have risen further, perhaps justified by strong AI investment and persistently high government borrowing. But some recent... 11th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia protests: assessing the economic fallout The latest bout of unrest in Indonesia is unlikely to deliver a significant blow to the economy, but it is a symptom of underlying economic weaknesses and highlights political risks that could erode... 2nd September 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Global CRE to outperform other assets Although a forecast global real estate return of sub-6% p.a. over the next decade appears disappointing, compared to other assets it stacks up well. We expect sub-4% total returns for both global... 24th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update The changing face of the global tourism market Somewhat paradoxically, climate-driven shifts in tourist patterns could help to smooth the seasonal peaks seen in summer destinations, and some countries – particularly in northern Europe – will... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Fears about AI-driven job losses are overdone A number of AI-linked redundancies have hit the headlines recently, reigniting fears that the adoption of AI will lead to a surge in unemployment. We continue to think that fears of a big long-term... 30th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Demographics adding to fiscal pressures As time marches on, the once distant threat of demographic pressures for many countries, especially those in Europe, is fast becoming a reality. This adds to the other pressures on the public finances... 20th June 2025 · 2 mins read
