Long Run Update AI and jobs: could this time be completely different? We still believe that AI will alter the nature of work, rather than significantly diminish the role of human labour. While it is not impossible that AI eventually displaces most or all jobs, such an... 28th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Caution is warranted on defence-driven growth The latest IMF analysis broadly corroborates the conclusion we reached a year ago that higher defence spending will not turbocharge economic growth. The near-term boost to output will be smaller than... 16th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update China to benefit from a post-conflict green tech boost The energy shock as a result of the conflict in Iran could provide a boost to the renewable rollout, especially in parts of Asia and Africa where the risks from high fossil fuel prices are greatest... 7th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Rebalancing Vietnam’s economy under new leadership Vietnam’s export-led growth model faces a pivotal political moment, with To Lam confirmed today as the country’s next president. His elevation consolidates the Communist Party’s leadership at a time... 7th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Are generous cash handouts the answer to low fertility? There is some evidence that generous cash subsidies to new parents have lifted the fertility rate in Korea. But it is not clear whether similar policies would have the same impact in countries where... 31st March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: is stability here to stay? Pakistan has pulled itself back from the edge of economic collapse: foreign exchange reserves have been rebuilt, inflation has stabilised, the current account is broadly balanced and the fiscal... 17th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Why this election matters for Bangladesh The upcoming election on 12th February will be pivotal for Bangladesh as the country seeks to restore stability following the 2024 political crisis and place the economy on a more sustainable footing... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Analysing public debt sustainability in the euro-zone Among the largest euro-zone countries, public debt looks most worrying in France because it is on an upward trajectory and Italy because it is likely to remain very high. Government debt is also set... 3rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Benefits of India-EU trade deal shouldn’t be underplayed It may be tempting to conclude that the long-awaited India-EU trade deal announced today will only have a small economic impact. After all, key sectors such as agriculture remain off the table and the... 27th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam Party Congress: balancing stability and reform Vietnam’s Party Congress, beginning Monday, comes at a critical juncture. Following a period of political turbulence, To Lam looks set to be confirmed as both general secretary and state president... 15th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Has Japan become a leading ICT economy? While Japanese firms seem to be investing more in information & communication technology than those in almost any other advanced economy, broader measures suggest that the country is not a leading... 6th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update 5 key questions about AI and demand for commodities This Update examines five key questions about AI-related demand for commodities, and the economic consequences of potential future disruptions to their supply. 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Takaichi unlikely to curb immigration much Concerns that new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will drastically reduce immigration inflows seem overdone. But we suspect that the increase in immigration inflows over the past decade will come to a... 19th November 2025 · 3 mins read
