Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s brain drain is harming its economic potential Malaysia’s brain drain is a longstanding challenge to its ambition to become a high-income economy. A large diaspora, much of it concentrated in Singapore, includes a significant number of skilled... 27th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Tariffs likely to far outlast Trump The precarious fiscal situation means the next administration will be in no rush to remove the tariffs that are in place at the end of President Trump’s term. Nonetheless, under most future scenarios... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Countering China Shock 2.0 will carry a climate cost China’s ability to produce and export green technologies at a low cost is a key driver of renewable and electric vehicle rollouts, including in the EU. As a result, efforts to now de-risk from China... 22nd September 2026 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update Learning to live with extreme weather events The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will be a greater source of economic volatility than in the past and could hit some sectors particularly hard. The changing nature of... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Can Vietnam grow by 10%? Vietnam is set to remain one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies over the rest of the decade. The government could probably push growth towards its target of 10% between now and 2030 by further... 11th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update How to think about AI & inflation We think that the boost to demand from the AI investment boom is outweighing the disinflationary effects of any AI-driven productivity gains. Any suggestions that AI paves the way for near-term... 14th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Heatwaves, climate change and euro-zone GDP The recent heatwave is further evidence that Europe is heavily exposed to climate change. We do not think this will impact GDP significantly this year. But over the long run it will dampen GDP growth... 2nd July 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The price of free time in Latin America Latin America is seeing a wave of labour market reforms that reduce maximum working hours with no reduction in compensation, which could raise inflation and reduce competitiveness. It appears most... 2nd June 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What medium-term disruption might AI bring? While the long-run impact of AI should be positive, the transition to widespread adoption could prove economically disruptive. This risk is greater if AI adoption accelerates and workers, firms and... 26th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Assessing the effects of an extreme war scenario In this Update, we explore an extreme scenario in which the Iran war escalates beyond the assumptions in our published baseline and adverse scenarios. With Brent crude jumping higher and staying at... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Long Run Update AI and jobs: could this time be completely different? We still believe that AI will alter the nature of work, rather than significantly diminish the role of human labour. While it is not impossible that AI eventually displaces most or all jobs, such an... 28th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Caution is warranted on defence-driven growth The latest IMF analysis broadly corroborates the conclusion we reached a year ago that higher defence spending will not turbocharge economic growth. The near-term boost to output will be smaller than... 16th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update China to benefit from a post-conflict green tech boost The energy shock as a result of the conflict in Iran could provide a boost to the renewable rollout, especially in parts of Asia and Africa where the risks from high fossil fuel prices are greatest... 7th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Rebalancing Vietnam’s economy under new leadership Vietnam’s export-led growth model faces a pivotal political moment, with To Lam confirmed today as the country’s next president. His elevation consolidates the Communist Party’s leadership at a time... 7th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Are generous cash handouts the answer to low fertility? There is some evidence that generous cash subsidies to new parents have lifted the fertility rate in Korea. But it is not clear whether similar policies would have the same impact in countries where... 31st March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
