Latin America Economics Weekly COP drop, commodity price rally to the rescue? The ongoing protests against tax hikes in Colombia have increased the risks around the fiscal position and we think that local financial markets and the currency will remain on the backfoot in the... 7th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombian protests, vaccine wrap-up Mass protests against tax hikes in Colombia this week have reduced the chances that reforms will be passed (at least without being watered down), putting the sovereign's investment grade rating on... 30th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile pension withdrawals, Brazil’s budget woes The third pension withdrawal bill currently making its way through Congress in Chile would support its economic recovery in the near term, but it is another concerning sign of a gradual shift towards... 23rd April 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s budget imbroglio, Andean election surprises The recent fiasco with Brazil's 2021 budget, which will have to be approved next week, suggests that commitment to fiscal support is fraying. This has resulted in a higher risk premium on Brazilian... 16th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru & Ecuador votes, Banxico’s doves, rising virus cases Voters head to the polls in Peru and Ecuador on Sunday which could lead to a populist shift in both countries. In the former, political risks may have a growing adverse impact on the economy and... 9th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile rate hikes on the horizon, Brazilian payrolls Chile’s central bank was notably less dovish at its meeting this week, supporting our view that the central bank will begin a tightening cycle later this year, most likely in Q4. Elsewhere, while... 1st April 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom’s rosy growth view, Buenos Aires bonds The minutes to Copom’s meeting last week outlined a rosy outlook for economic growth, but the dire incoming data add to the reasons to think that the monetary tightening cycle will probably be shorter... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombian tax reform, vaccines and Brazil’s struggles A tax reform bill in Colombia, that will be sent to Congress next week, has slipped under the radar but this legislation could have a major bearing on the country’s sovereign investment grade rating... 19th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal worries in Brazil, Argentina’s inflation dilemma Fiscal concerns are growing in Brazil as Congress approved a bill yesterday which opens the door to more fiscal support (outside the limits of the spending cap). And pressure for higher public... 12th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo intervenes, Chile’s success, Brazil tumbling The Mexican government’s bill to partly reverse reforms in the electricity sector threatens to open up a Pandora’s box of legal wrangling and will further damage the prospects for private investment... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico staying put, Brazil’s Petrobras mess The hit to Mexico’s financial markets during the recent rout in global bond markets adds to the reasons to think that Banxico’s easing cycle is done and dusted. Brazilian financial markets were also... 26th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s blackouts, Argentine policymaking woes The energy crisis in Texas has led to power outages across Mexico this week, particularly in the northern manufacturing heartland, which we estimate may knock about 5% off industrial production this... 19th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB outlook, Chile’s vaccine drive, Ecuador’s election The approval of a bill to make Brazil’s central bank (BCB) independent could, in the long term, help to reduce inflation and bond yields. In the meantime, the BCB’s governor has sought to downplay... 12th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador votes, Brazil risks easing, Banxico to cut Sovereign debt risks in Ecuador will remain high regardless of Sunday’s election result and another debt restructuring is likely in the medium term. Even so, there could still be a window of... 5th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom’s hawks, Brazil’s Speaker, truckers’ strike The minutes to the latest Brazilian central bank decision show that the hawkish contingent on Copom is larger and more vocal than we had anticipated. But the weakness of the labour market figures... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador default risks, Brazil’s political problems Comments from left-wing Ecuadorian presidential candidate, Andrés Arauz, caused ructions in the bond market this week and reinforce our view that another debt restructuring may be on the cards... 22nd January 2021 · 8 mins read
