Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt: what are the risks ahead? As the dust settles on the latest twist in Argentina’s sovereign debt debacle, attention has turned to 2013 and the possibility of a fresh default. This remains a significant risk. But while a default... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chavez's absence adds to the uncertainty in Venezuela Venezuelan economic policy looks set to remain in limbo until the future of the President Hugo Chávez is resolved. Devaluation of the bolivar, which we had expected early next year, may be delayed... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian rates set to remain on hold throughout 2013 Peru kept interest rates on hold at 4.25% last night after a fall in food inflation brought the headline rate down to target for the first time since mid-2011. Looking forward, with the scope for... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Central America best placed to benefit from China shift After a decade of underperformance, we believe that growth in Central America will start to outpace that of South America over the coming years. Part of the reason for this is the changing... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US fiscal cliff unlikely to destabilise Mexican economy Fears about the looming fiscal cliff have caused US businesses and households to defer spending plans, in the process contributing to the recent slowdown in the Mexican economy. But with an abrupt... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Pena Nieto keeps up reform momentum The new President of Mexico, Enrique Pena Nieto of the PRI, has continued to demonstrate an appetite for the kind of reforms that should help to raise economic activity over the medium-term. We expect... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry not as strong as it seems Brazilian industry should continue to grow over the coming months, but the current pace of expansion is unlikely to be maintained. Tax breaks on motor vehicles are due to expire, while the economy... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Q3 GDP reinforces limits of consumption-led growth Today’s disappointing third quarter GDP data suggest that despite substantial policy stimulus the Brazilian economy is struggling to get going. We expect growth to remain lacklustre over the next year... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Less to Chile’s manufacturing surge than meets the eye The sharp pick-up in Chilean manufacturing growth in October gives a misleading impression of the true health of local industry. What’s more, to the extent that there has been a rebound in... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil central bank remains in dovish mood The decision by Brazil’s central bank to keep interest rates unchanged at a record low of 7.25% was expected, but the accompanying statement supports our view that they will remain at their current... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil and Mexico: trading places We expect the Mexican economy to outperform by recent standards over the next couple of years. By contrast, growth in Brazil – which until now has been the star performer out of Latin America’s two... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian easing cycle not yet over Colombian interest rates will probably fall further next year as external headwinds cause GDP growth to slow. By contrast, a weaker global economy could be helpful for Peru, where the latest economic... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US court ruling calls Argentina's bluff on holdout debt Yesterday’s ruling by a US judge implies that if Argentina continues to play hardball on its holdout debt it will find itself in technical default within a matter of weeks. This may not be the... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Labour market reforms boost medium-term outlook Mexico’s labour market reforms are unlikely to lead to a swift acceleration in GDP growth in the very near-term. But with the re-election of the PRI seemingly having ended the political deadlock that... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: solid Q3 growth driven by domestic demand Chile’s economy posted another quarter of solid GDP growth in Q3, as an acceleration of consumption and investment offset export weakness. But a sharp rise in the current account deficit suggests that... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico slowing but still likely to outperform Mexico’s economy slowed by more than expected in Q3 and the latest monthly activity data suggest that growth in Q4 is likely to be even weaker. This should end speculation that the central bank might... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
