Latin America Economics Update Peru still among region’s fastest growing economies September’s activity data show that Peru remains among the region’s fastest growing economies and it seems that GDP probably grew by 6.5% y/y in Q3. We expect Peru to be one of Latin America’s best... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Nov.) The Capital Economics Argentina Activity Indicator suggests that Argentina’s economy pulled out of recession in Q3 and is on course to register modest growth in Q4. But this turn-around has been... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Few options left to plug holes in Venezuela's balance of payments A combination of quick-fix remedies may enable the Venezuelan economy to withstand the loss of exports revenues if oil prices fall over the next couple of years. But with the authorities running out... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: in search of investment-led growth Data released later this month are likely to show that after having stagnated for much of the past year, Brazil’s economy roared back to life in Q3 on the back of substantial policy stimulus. But... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: further tightening to come via reserve requirements Last night’s central bank meeting in Peru provided further evidence that policymakers are not considering rate hikes despite vigorous domestic demand and credit growth. Instead, concerns over the... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bank failures reflect previous financial excesses The recent seizure of a handful of small Brazilian banks and a Colombian brokerage underline the extent of financial excesses in parts of the region in recent years. While there may be additional bank... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Making sense of the Andes construction boom Increased savings and investment levels have fuelled a surge in construction activity in Latin America’s Andean economies, helping to raise their long-run growth potential. But in a few countries... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican auto sector revving up for stronger exports We estimate that an increase in motor vehicle exports to the US could add around 0.5% to Mexican GDP in each of the next four years. This supports our expectation that the Mexican economy is... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: drop in industry a payback for summer gains The sharp fall in Brazilian industrial production in September is partly a payback from the large monthly increases in output seen in July and August. The bigger picture is that policy stimulus has... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will Mexico hike interest rates? A series of hawkish comments from Mexican policymakers has fuelled speculation that the central bank may finally be on the cusp of hiking interest rates – having kept them at record lows for the best... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: populist policymaking raises default risk A recent ruling by a US court has raised questions over whether Argentina will be pushed into a fresh debt default. On closer inspection, the issue remains one of willingness to pay rather than... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean growth firmer than September data suggest Chile’s latest economic activity data are not as bad as they first appear. Much of the weakness in retail sales and manufacturing can be put down to the extended independence holidays. That said, we... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rate cuts in Colombia dependent upon global weakening The Colombian central bank (BANREP) appears to have signalled that further interest rates cuts are contingent upon a deterioration in the global environment. We think that a deepening of the euro-zone... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Should we be worried about Argentina’s provincial debt? Fears that the ‘pesofication’ of foreign currency debt by one Argentine province earlier this month will lead to a wave of local government defaults are overdone. Even so, the provinces face a funding... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Devaluation of Venezuelan bolivar on the cards for 2013 The fact that over half of FX transactions in Venezuela have already been forced onto the black market – where the bolivar trades at much weaker rates – means that the country has already seen a sharp... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean rates to remain on hold for a few months yet Chilean policymakers kept interest rates on hold last night amid growing concerns over the strength of the peso. The resilience of domestic demand means that rates should stay unchanged in the near... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
