Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (Oct. 2023) The increase in the Riksbank’s target measure of inflation in October was broadly as anticipated and does not change our view that, while it will be a close call, policymakers are most likely to raise... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (Oct. 2023) Despite the unexpected jump in Norway’s headline and core inflation rates in October, we still think the Norges Bank is most likely to leave rates on hold in December. 10th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep. 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in September and, in our view, will remain weak in the coming months as the economy falls into recession. 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (Sept.) German industrial production fell much more than anticipated in September and the prospects for the winter months look very poor. 7th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (October 2023) Final PMIs released today confirmed the preliminary estimates and are consistent with our forecast that euro-zone GDP will contract again in Q4. They also suggest that price pressures are continuing... 6th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (October) Swiss headline inflation remained unchanged in October at 1.7% and although the core rate rose for the first time in eight months we expect inflation to stay below 2% for the foreseeable future... 2nd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) & HICP (October) The euro-zone economy contracted in Q3 and the continued weakness of the surveys at the start of Q4 suggests that the outlook is poor. Meanwhile, inflation fell sharply again in October but the period... 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France GDP (Q3) The slowdown in French GDP growth from an upwardly-revised +0.6% q/q in Q2 to only 0.1% in Q3 (see Chart 1) was a little better than the consensus and our own forecast (+0.1% and -0.2% q/q) and means... 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (October) October’s business and consumer survey from the European Commission added to the evidence that the euro-zone economy is contracting. While the labour market still looks tight, labour shortages are... 30th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (Q3) and state CPI (October) The small decline in German GDP in the third quarter and upward revision to the previous two quarters means the economy is not doing quite as poorly as anticipated. But GDP has essentially been... 30th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden GDP (Q3) Preliminary data released this morning show that the Swedish economy flatlined in Q3 (0.0% q/q) after contracting sharply in the second quarter (-0.8%). (See Chart 1.) This slightly stronger-than... 30th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Rapid Response: Spain GDP (Q3 2023) GDP data for Spain in Q3 were a bit stronger than expected and showed that the economy was proving more resilient in the face of high interest rates than anticipated. But the outlook is still weak. 27th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (October 2023) Today’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, and the tone of the press release, were as expected. There is no mention of ending PEPP reinvestments early or raising banks’ reserve requirements... 26th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (Oct.) The small rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in October still left the index in contractionary territory, echoing the downbeat message from the Composite PMI released yesterday. This chimes... 25th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2023) The further decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI in October left it well into contractionary territory and the breakdown provides further evidence that price pressures are easing. The survey will... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP Breakdown (Sept.) The breakdown of euro-zone HICP inflation data for September, published today, reveals that there was a significant fall in inflation for tourism-related services as the summer season ended. This... 18th October 2023 · 2 mins read
