Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (June) German industrial output fell in June and we expect it to decline further in the rest of this year as high interest rates and weakening demand take a toll on production. 7th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in June and we expect them to continue to trend down over the rest of this year as high interest rates take an increasing toll on consumers. 4th August 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Jul.) The final euro-zone PMIs confirmed that economic conditions deteriorated in July, with the Composite index consistent with GDP declining slightly. We continue to expect the euro-zone economy to fall... 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (July) Easing core inflation drove headline inflation lower in July, but we don’t expect it to fall much further this year. Despite inflation now sitting within the 0-2% range the SNB equates with price... 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EZ Unemployment (June) The euro-zone labour market remains extremely tight, with the unemployment rate steady at a record low in June. We expect weakness in activity to cause labour market conditions to loosen somewhat in... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2) and HICP (July) July’s inflation data will have been a disappointment for policymakers as, although headline inflation fell in line with expectations, core inflation was unchanged at 5.5% and services inflation... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Italy GDP (Q2 2023) The drop in GDP in Italy in Q2 means euro-zone output probably rose by 0.3% q/q in Q2, and just 0.1% if Ireland is excluded. Italy is no longer outperforming its peers and we think it will experience... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (July) The small fall in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in July leaves it consistent on past form with output stagnating and suggests that, despite the stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP data reported... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (Q2 2023) National data released so far suggest that the euro-zone economy held up better than we had anticipated in Q2, with Germany still the laggard among major economies. We continue to think that monetary... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France and Spain GDP (Q2 2023) The big increases in Q2 GDP in Spain and particularly France suggest that the euro-zone has so far coped with policy tightening much better than feared. However, the France data were flattered by... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (July 2023) As was universally expected, the ECB raised interest rates by a further 25bp today and indicated that further hikes are possible but not certain. At the press conference we expect the main message to... 27th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (July) The bigger-than-expected fall in the German Ifo, together with the drop in the PMIs published yesterday, suggest that the German economy continued to shrink at the start of Q3. We expect the recession... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July 2023) July’s euro-zone PMIs are consistent with our non-consensus view that the currency union’s economy will remain in recession. But they also suggest that the labour market will remain tight, keeping... 24th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Spain election result The People’s Party won the most seats at yesterday’s general election but, even together with the far-right VOX, they achieved only 169 seats which leaves them seven short of a majority. With the... 24th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (June) The fall in CPIF inflation, the Riksbank’s target variable, in June was smaller than policymakers expected, which will encourage them to raise the policy rate from 3.75% to 4.00% at the next meeting... 14th July 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) Euro-zone industrial production edged up in May but it probably still declined over Q2 as a whole and we think further weakness is ahead. 13th July 2023 · 2 mins read
