Europe Rapid Response Norway Consumer Prices (June) In June, Norway’s inflation data were much stronger than expected for the second month running. While the Norges Bank has signalled a 25bp interest rate hike at its next meeting in August, June’s data... 10th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (May 2023) German industrial production fell in May and is likely to have declined in Q2. We think industry will continue to struggle over the rest of this year. 7th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May 2023) Euro-zone retail sales remained very weak in May and point to household consumption having fallen in Q2. Further out, low consumer confidence and rising interest rates suggest that household... 6th July 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (June 2023) The downward revision to the euro-zone Composite PMI for June, from 50.3 to 49.9, left it consistent with the economy stagnating at best at the end of Q2. Given that the PMI overstated growth in Q1... 5th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (June) The fall in inflation in June was smaller than the SNB had expected and SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan’s comments after the meeting two weeks ago suggest a further hike in the policy rate in September is... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (June) June’s inflation data won’t shift the dial at the ECB. While the headline rate is on a steep downward trend, services inflation shows no sign of falling. 30th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany HICP (June) The increase in German headline and core inflation in June was mainly due to base effects. Euro-zone headline inflation probably still fell but the core rate is likely to have been little changed... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (Jun.) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) weakened further in June and is broadly consistent with the economy stagnating at best. We expect the euro-zone’s mild recession to continue for the rest of... 29th June 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (June 2023) The 25bp rate hike announced by the Riksbank today, which brings the key policy rate to 3.75%, had been strongly signalled at the Riksbank’s last meeting. But the accompanying statement and decisions... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Spain HICP (June 2023) The further fall in Spanish HICP inflation will provide some respite for households who have suffered a sharp hit to real household income over the last year. But it will have little sway over ECB... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Italy HICP (June 2023) The drop in Italy’s headline and core inflation in June is encouraging. But the euro-zone core rate is unlikely to have declined significantly due to base effects related to the anniversary of the... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (June) The slump in the German Ifo, together with the drop in the PMIs, released on Friday, suggests that German GDP probably contracted for the third quarter in a row in Q2. We expect the economy to remain... 26th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Weakness in both services and manufacturing sectors The fall in the euro-zone flash Composite PMI from 52.8 in May to 50.3 in June left it even lower than our below-consensus forecast. On the face of it, the index still points to a small expansion in... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read
