Emerging Markets Economics Update Wage growth still uncomfortably strong in a few EMs Labour market conditions have weakened across much of the emerging world over recent months and wage growth is, on average, back in line with pre-pandemic rates. But there are wide regional variations... 4th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry weakens, but a few bright spots The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI to a four-month low in November reflects a loss of momentum in some of the largest EMs, most notably China. But conditions in industry have strengthened in some... 1st December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2025) Capital outflows from EMs have picked up over the past month, particularly from Asian equity markets which may reflect the broader drop in tech stocks globally. But the scale of outflows is limited... 27th November 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Default risks easing, but simmering fiscal problems in some EMs The incidence of sovereign debt distress has declined sharply across the EM world and is now back to pre-pandemic levels. But our EM Financial Risk Indicators suggest that several countries are still... 25th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to EM elections in 2026 After a fairly quiet 2025, the EM electoral calendar looks busy again in 2026. The run-up to votes could add to fiscal strains in Brazil, Colombia and Hungary. Meanwhile, there is a risk of... 18th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Early current account warning signs in a few EMs Emerging economies’ external positions generally look strong. But current account deficits are starting to widen in a handful of countries in Latin America as well as in the Philippines and Poland... 17th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where do EMs sit in the business cycle? Aggregate EM GDP growth is likely to slow over the coming quarters but, as ever, there are many stories playing out at country level. Brazil is likely to lead the slowdown while growth in China will... 10th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Slow going for EM manufacturers Although the EM manufacturing PMI dipped in October, the index remains close to its highest level since the start of the year. Even so, China’s industrial sector has lost momentum recently and the... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China is no longer an EM outperformer China’s economy has grown faster than other EMs in aggregate every year outside of the pandemic so far this century. But that run is now coming to an end and we expect growth on our China Activity... 28th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2025) Capital inflows into EMs have held up well over the past month, largely a result of strong flows into equity markets (Korea in particular). While we expect EM currencies to depreciate over the next... 23rd October 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Dollar recovery only part of the story for EM FX After a relatively good run, we think EM currencies will generally depreciate over the coming quarters as the US dollar recovers. Heavily managed currencies in high-inflation economies like the... 21st October 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Friends with benefits: the US, Argentina and other EMs The US’s recent pledge of support for Argentina raises the question of whether other EMs facing financial difficulty might receive similar assistance. Pakistan and Jordan are potential candidates, as... 16th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation outlook (generally) more benign EM inflation has continued to fall and is now close to the rates recorded in the late 2010s, which will be welcomed by policymakers. But there are a few important outliers. Inflation looks set to... 14th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fiscal realities now biting in some major oil producers The 2026 budgets announced in Russia and Saudi Arabia in the past week point to significant fiscal tightening following declines in oil revenues and budget blowouts this year. Pressures for fiscal... 2nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tougher times ahead for EM manufacturing The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI in September was primarily driven by the jump in China. China (and India) aside, the EM PMIs generally remain weak and a combination of high US tariffs, tight... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2025) Capital inflows into EMs continued last month, with the restart of Fed easing and further declines in the dollar supporting bond inflows in particular. While we expect EM currencies to depreciate over... 26th September 2025 · 0 mins read
