Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI signals modest improvement in manufacturing Our EM-wide PMI suggests that emerging market manufacturing improved a little last month. The recovery in the euro-zone in recent months appears to have boosted external demand, particularly in... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRIC GDP growth propped up by Brazil rebound in Q2 At an aggregate level, the second quarter GDP data suggest that the BRIC economies held up relatively well in Q2. However, this was largely due to a surprisingly strong rebound in Brazil. In the other... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we still worry about EM currency crises? Improved fundamentals mean that currency crises pose a much smaller risk to Emerging Markets now than in the past. But it would be unwise to assume that the coast is therefore clear for the emerging... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three questions (and answers) about the EM currency sell-off The renewed sell-off in EM currencies has cast a fresh spotlight on vulnerabilities in the emerging world. In this Update we answer three key questions that have been raised by recent market moves. 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs likely to tread carefully with energy subsidy reform High global energy prices have contributed to rising subsidy spending across much of the emerging world. Some EMs have already started to cut back on subsidies. But fears of inflation and civil unrest... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI falls to four-year low Our EM-wide PMI estimate suggests that conditions in emerging market manufacturing are now the weakest they have been since early 2009. 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update “Great Deceleration” has long since begun Recent talk of a looming “Great Deceleration” in EM growth has tended to miss the crucial fact that the emerging world has already been slowing for several years. In this Update we summarise five key... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What will a tapering of QE3 mean for EM interest rates? The sell-off in EM currencies that has followed the Fed’s signal that it may start to taper its asset purchases under QE3 has led central banks in India, Indonesia and now Turkey to hike interest... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market growth: the long view We think that the non-BRIC Emerging Markets (EMs) will play a more important role than the BRICs in driving a gradual acceleration of global GDP growth over the next 2-3 years. Within the EM world... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s slowdown: which EMs are most exposed? Last week we published for the first time our forecasts for 2015 GDP growth in China, which put us right at the bottom end of consensus expectations. For the rest of the emerging world, the effects of... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The EM winners and losers from the shale revolution There’s a vast amount of uncertainty about the potential for developing countries to follow the US and Canada in exploiting their shale reserves. But if they can, it could turn a large number of... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMIs fall again, but Emerging Europe bucks the trend June’s PMIs suggest that the downturn in emerging market manufacturing is gathering pace, with our EM-wide PMI estimate dropping to its lowest level for nearly a year. Producers in Asia and Latin... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market turmoil unlikely to cause EMs to slow via wealth effects While at first sight it does look like the recent falls in emerging market (EM) equities could cause growth to slow via “wealth effects”, we think there are only limited grounds for concern. 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic impact of Fed tapering on EMs Yesterday’s FOMC meeting cemented expectations that the Fed will start to taper its asset purchases under QE3 later this year and has weighed on EM financial markets today, but the economic impact of... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Competitiveness concerns are in Latin America, not China Despite having experienced relatively rapid wage growth in recent years, there is little evidence that China has suffered a significant loss of export competitiveness. Instead, the EM region that has... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs should be worried about weaker currencies? Most EMs are likely to tolerate the recent sell-off in their currencies. In some places this may even be welcomed. But there are a few exceptions. Inflation concerns mean that currency weakness will... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
