Emerging Markets Economics Update EM recovery falters Our EM GDP Tracker provides tentative evidence that the recent emerging market recovery is losing steam. Growth slowed slightly in Emerging Asia and Latin America in January, and continues to be very... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about EM central bank independence? Fears that politicians in the emerging world are trying to tighten their grip over monetary policy are generally wide of the mark. But Hungary is a notable exception. 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery stutters The latest PMI surveys suggest that the recovery in emerging world manufacturing has lost a little steam recently. Part of the weakness can be explained by the effects of the Chinese New Year, which... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A different take on "currency wars" The “Swan Diagram” – developed by the Australian academic Trevor Swan in the 1950s – offers a fresh perspective on global “currency wars”. It suggests that macro imbalances in those EMs that have been... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Overall EM inflows not at danger levels but country risks remain Capital flows to emerging economies are not yet running at a rate that should be a major cause for concern. But estimates of flows in aggregate miss some of the key risks facing individual economies. 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs right to be wary of rapid capital inflows Behind the rhetoric of global currency wars lies a more fundamental concern that loose monetary policy in the developed economies will lead to rapid and destabilising capital inflows to the emerging... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM consumers go their separate ways Strong employment growth, coupled with favourable credit dynamics, should ensure that consumer spending continues to outperform in Emerging Asia over the coming years. By contrast, consumption looks... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Major EM regions all now reporting stronger growth The ongoing recovery in emerging world manufacturing looks increasingly broad based. The PMIs for Latin America and Emerging Asia have risen rapidly since mid-2012 and the latest figures point to a... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM recovery continues Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that the emerging market recovery is strengthening and that growth accelerated in the final months of last year. Asia and Latin America are still leading the recovery, but... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will benefit from rising labour costs in China? China’s low-end exports are now losing global market share. Rapidly rising labour costs in China mean this trend is likely to continue. Although many countries can now compete with China on labour... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How is government spending affecting EM growth? In parts of the emerging market world, an increasingly pro-cyclical government spending bias threatens to contribute to a more volatile pattern of growth. Within Latin America there is a risk that... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Slow start to 2013 in the US will hold back EMs The worst case scenarios associated with the US “fiscal cliff” have been avoided, but the US is still likely to get off to a slow start to the year. It will hold back growth in EMs, but it will not be... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Europe lagging behind in EM recovery Emerging market manufacturing grew at its fastest pace in more than 18 months in December, according to the latest PMI data. However, the improvement in performance was concentrated in Asia and Latin... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A better start to Q4 but Emerging Europe still struggling Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that emerging market growth has accelerated a little in the final quarter of this year. But growth remains subdued by the standards of the past decade and the recent... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Exports to euro-zone to remain a source of EM weakness Weak demand from the euro-zone accounts for about two-fifths of the decline in emerging market GDP growth over the past year or so, and the drag looks set to intensify as Europe slides into an even... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How big a threat is inflation to emerging markets? Inflation is unlikely to be a major threat to most emerging markets in 2013. The two exceptions to this are Venezuela and Argentina, where high inflation will put downward pressure on their currencies... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
