India Economics Update India-US trade deal: economic and geopolitical ramifications The 18% tariff that President Trump has announced will be applied to imports from India – down from 50% – would significantly boost India’s attractiveness as an alternative manufacturing hub to China... 2nd February 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs could be the next to hike? We doubt that any other major EM central bank will imminently follow Colombia in kicking off hiking cycles, although a strengthening of inflation pressures in parts of Central Europe (Czechia and... 2nd February 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What if the US strikes Iran (again)? Fresh strikes by the US on Iran would, coming in the wake of recent protests in the country, raise the chances of some form of regime change which could eventually pave the way for Iran’s possible... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three market-moving EM elections to watch this year Elections in Brazil, Colombia and Hungary have the greatest potential to deliver large financial market moves this year. A shift towards more investor-friendly policymaking and improved fiscal... 28th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The macro implications of a weaker dollar Our base case is that the recent bout of weakness in the US dollar will reverse. If it remains at its current level, the direct macro impact is likely to be small for most countries, especially... 28th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan. 2026) So far at least, there’s little sign that the geopolitical flare-ups this year have affected capital inflows to emerging markets. Indeed, inflows have picked up sharply in the last few weeks. Even if... 22nd January 2026 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update Key questions in geoeconomics to start the year Geoeconomics is back in focus as we enter 2026, with the removal of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro by the US dominating headlines and raising questions for global markets. This Global Economics Update... 5th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2025) EM capital outflows continued over the past month, driven by equities while bond inflows persisted. Even if outflows continue, strong external balance sheets mean that most EMs are well placed to... 18th December 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Wage growth still uncomfortably strong in a few EMs Labour market conditions have weakened across much of the emerging world over recent months and wage growth is, on average, back in line with pre-pandemic rates. But there are wide regional variations... 4th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry weakens, but a few bright spots The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI to a four-month low in November reflects a loss of momentum in some of the largest EMs, most notably China. But conditions in industry have strengthened in some... 1st December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2025) Capital outflows from EMs have picked up over the past month, particularly from Asian equity markets which may reflect the broader drop in tech stocks globally. But the scale of outflows is limited... 27th November 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Default risks easing, but simmering fiscal problems in some EMs The incidence of sovereign debt distress has declined sharply across the EM world and is now back to pre-pandemic levels. But our EM Financial Risk Indicators suggest that several countries are still... 25th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to EM elections in 2026 After a fairly quiet 2025, the EM electoral calendar looks busy again in 2026. The run-up to votes could add to fiscal strains in Brazil, Colombia and Hungary. Meanwhile, there is a risk of... 18th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Early current account warning signs in a few EMs Emerging economies’ external positions generally look strong. But current account deficits are starting to widen in a handful of countries in Latin America as well as in the Philippines and Poland... 17th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where do EMs sit in the business cycle? Aggregate EM GDP growth is likely to slow over the coming quarters but, as ever, there are many stories playing out at country level. Brazil is likely to lead the slowdown while growth in China will... 10th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Slow going for EM manufacturers Although the EM manufacturing PMI dipped in October, the index remains close to its highest level since the start of the year. Even so, China’s industrial sector has lost momentum recently and the... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
