Global Markets Update

Parsing the market’s verdict on recent EM elections

Elections in South Africa, India, and Mexico have generated sizeable reactions in their financial markets over the past week or so, highlighting the potential for electoral surprises to generate short...

7th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM growth robust in Q1 but disparities persist

Aggregate EM GDP growth remained strong in Q1, though we still expect a slowdown later this year. At a regional level, Emerging Asia will lead the pack, however there are tentative signs that...

6th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM manufacturing performance strong but uneven

The EM manufacturing PMI remained at a three-year high in May but the picture is becoming increasingly nuanced at a country level. Meanwhile, the PMIs also showed price pressures rose again last month...

3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM savings problems not just a China story

Some of the structural problems in China’s economy have their roots in its excessively high savings rate (and underconsumption). For many other EMs, savings rates are also a problem but for the...

21st May 2024 · 3 mins read

India Economics Update

India’s geopolitical balancing act

India is benefitting economically from maintaining its historical non-aligned stance in response to tensions between the West and Russia, and Iran to a lesser extent. But notwithstanding a potential...

16th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Global Economics Update

What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy

We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of...

15th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

EM sovereign bonds may outperform US Treasuries

We expect total returns from both US dollar-denominated, and especially local-currency (LC), emerging market (EM) sovereign bonds to trump, in general, those from US Treasuries in the next couple of...

15th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2024)

Capital flows into EM bonds and equities have fallen to their lowest in six months as investors have pared back expectations for Fed interest rate cuts. However, even with these moves, we remain more...

13th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Stubborn services inflation could slow rate cuts further

The persistent strength in core services inflation in some EMs outside Asia raises the chances that central banks cut interest rates by less than the consensus expects this year, not least because it...

9th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM manufacturing still going strong

The EM manufacturing PMI for April showed that industry continued its strong start to the year through to the beginning of Q2. At a regional level, the narrative was largely unchanged: India remains...

2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Apr. 2024)

Higher US bond yields and a stronger dollar have put some EM currencies under pressure this year, but external vulnerabilities have eased in most EMs which should limit adverse spillovers. Indeed, our...

30th April 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

“Turnaround EMs”: good start but plenty more to do

The policy shifts underway in Turkey, Nigeria, Argentina and Egypt have ticked a lot of the right boxes so far, but it will take years for the full economic benefits to materialise and require...

24th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

How will China’s trade surplus impact EMs?

While EM policymakers haven’t raised concerns about Chinese overcapacity in the same way that their counterparts in the US and Europe have, they too are facing widening trade deficits with China. We...

24th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

How will EM central banks respond to the currency sell-off?

The recent bout of EM currency weakness may prompt (further) FX intervention, particularly in Asia, to stem currency volatility. Turkey’s central bank is likely to hike rates at its meeting next week...

17th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The Iran drone strike & the oil market implications

There are clearly many ways in which tensions between Iran and Israel could escalate and push up oil prices following the Iranian drone strike at the weekend. But the risk that a conflict involving...

15th April 2024 · 4 mins read