Emerging Markets Economics Update What would Trump mean for EM monetary policy? A victory for Donald Trump in the US election would probably result in higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. That’s an environment in which central banks in EMs with strained balance sheets... 24th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Asia to drive next phase of the EM easing cycle The outcomes of the EM central bank meetings since the beginning of October underscore the point that Asia will lead the next phase of the EM easing cycle. Central banks in Central and Eastern Europe... 21st October 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to expect from the BRICS+ summit The BRICS+ summit in Russia next week is likely to see another push on expansion, mainly to close allies of China and Russia. But limited economic benefits for potential new members, divisions among... 15th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s policy stimulus and the spillovers to EMs China’s policy stimulus measures have generated large market moves but it is the fiscal element, which hasn’t been detailed yet, that has the potential to lift the economy. We’re not expecting a huge... 10th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Wage growth still uncomfortably strong in LatAm, CEE Wage growth remains strong across much of Latin America and Central Europe (CEE), and that has stalled the disinflation process in services in particular. This supports our view that, in general... 7th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing slowed sharply in Q3 The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI in September suggests that growth slowed last quarter and we think this will continue over the coming months. The PMIs did at least provide encouraging signs that... 1st October 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Nasrallah and the next phase of war in the Middle East The strike by Israel in Lebanon that killed Hezbollah’s leader represents a major escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and all eyes are now on the next actions by Israel and Iran. On its own... 30th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2024) Capital inflows into EMs have rebounded over recent weeks amid the start of the Fed’s easing cycle. Looking ahead, we expect EM inflows to hold up well as global monetary conditions ease further. In... 26th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update EM assets & Fed easing: lessons from previous easing cycles After the Fed recently delivered its first rate cut, we look at previous US loosening cycles to analyse how emerging markets assets have performed. This time around we expect the US to skirt a... 20th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: key client questions answered We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on... 16th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What the Fed’s easing cycle means for EMs The Fed’s upcoming monetary easing cycle will probably provide less of a tailwind to EMs than is widely thought. While it’s likely to give some central banks (such as in the Gulf, Mexico and Indonesia... 12th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Risks to the global economy: your questions answered We held online Drop-In sessions earlier this week to discuss the outlook for major DM and EM economies and the risks that they face as we look forward to 2025. (See a recording here.) This Update... 5th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing set for a weaker Q3 After a large fall in July, the EM manufacturing PMI only edged up slightly last month, suggesting that the sector fared worse in Q3 than in the first half of the year. The PMIs did at least provide... 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug. 2024) Capital flows into EMs reversed course during the bout of market turmoil earlier this month. But the decline was no larger than that seen in other risk-off periods this year and inflows have since... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What impact will the recent wave of EM protests have? The protests that have swept several EMs in recent weeks are likely to have a longer-lasting economic impact in countries with weak balance sheets and/or where they lead to a major shift in policy. To... 20th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire The global macroeconomic risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are asymmetric. An agreement – while having significant economic consequences for countries in the region... 19th August 2024 · 5 mins read
