Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our tracker suggests that capital flows into and out of the EM world were essentially balanced last month. Over 2017 as a whole, outflows will be about US$55bn, just an eighth of the total recorded in... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to elections in 2018 In this note we publish a guide to elections that are scheduled across the emerging world in 2018. The calendar is busier than it was in 2017 but, whereas elections this year boosted the prospects for... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing growth on the rise in Q4 The latest Markit PMI surveys suggest EM manufacturing growth has gained momentum across the emerging world and looks set to end the year on a positive note. 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debunking three myths about EM credit The risks around EM credit expansion are, in our view, commonly misunderstood. In particular, threemyths appear to have developed in commentary around the subject. 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Learning the lessons from Fed-related sell-offs Periodic bouts of investor concern over Fed policy tightening appear to be having less and less effect on financial markets in EMs. That being said, the one consistent theme that emerges from our... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the latest spike in oil prices mean for EMs? The jump in oil prices over the past couple of weeks doesn’t radically alter the outlook for EMs. However, if sustained, it could exacerbate concerns we already have about some parts of the emerging... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Our tracker suggests that EM capital outflows picked up to a nine month high in October. Even so, they remained weak by the standard of recent years. 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump failing to deliver on protectionist threat One year on from his election, Donald Trump is struggling to live up to the promises he made on the campaign trail to get tough with countries that run big bilateral trade surpluses with the US... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Powell nomination won't have big impact on EMs The nomination of Jerome Powell to be the next chair of the Fed doesn’t have significant implications for EMs. We think that the economic recovery is close to peaking in several emerging economies and... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing growth eases in October Our estimate of the aggregate Emerging Market manufacturing PMI suggests that manufacturing activity weakened at the start of the Q4. This slowdown appears to be broad-based across EM regions. 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tail risks to watch for in EMs Our relatively sanguine view on the outlook for EMs over the next 12-18 months has prompted several clients to ask about risks to our forecasts. While risks – both positive and negative – are by their... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Total EM capital outflows slowed to a trickle in September. Portfolio inflows also seem to be slowing, but they remain very high by the standard of recent years. 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM dollar debt – a primer The decision by the Fed to begin the process of balance sheet reduction this month – coupled with the heavy hints that a December rate hike remains on the table – has led several clients to ask about... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still in decent shape The latest Markit PMI surveys suggest that conditions in emerging market manufacturing eased a touch at the end of Q3, but remain robust compared with the past few years. 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Drop in CA deficits take EMs out the firing line There are several reasons why the gradual tightening of monetary policy in developed markets is unlikely to cause major problems for EMs, but one of the most important is that current account deficits... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Time to worry about rising EM sovereign debt? The fact that aggregate EM sovereign debt has now surpassed $11.7trn has grabbed a few headlines but several factors – notably the increase in EM GDP over the past decade – mean that fiscal risks are... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
