Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Our Tracker shows that, in net terms, capital outflows from the emerging world eased in July, but the recent market turmoil suggests that the pace of outflows probably accelerated again in August. 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks unlikely to respond to FX weakness EM currencies have come under pressure over the past few days as Turkey’s crisis has escalated, but history suggests that such sentiment-driven sell-offs tend to be short-lived. We wouldn’t expect the... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will Turkey’s crisis affect other EMs? Aside from the impact on a few small neighbouring countries, most notably Bulgaria, the direct risk of contagion from Turkey’s crisis to other EMs is fairly low. However, Turkey’s problems may add to... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What’s behind the EM export slowdown? The recent slowdown in EM export volume growth has been driven by weaker demand from the euro-zone, as well as a number of idiosyncratic supply-side factors, notably a plunge in oil and agricultural... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM tightening cycle to kick on Inflationary pressures now seem to be building in many EMs. As a result, we think that the interest rate hikes seen in a few countries this week and that are likely next week will be followed by... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Further signs that EMs are losing steam The fall in July’s EM manufacturing PMI adds to the evidence that economies across the emerging world are starting to lose some steam, while the breakdown of the surveys showed that price pressures... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Our Capital Flows Tracker suggests that the escalation of global trade tensions has resulted in an acceleration of outflows from the emerging world. 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks move into tightening mode The recent spate of rate hikes in the emerging world probably marks the start of a sustained tightening cycle over the next 18 months – the first such cycle since 2011. This has more to do with... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US-China tariffs may shift import demand to other EMs The tariffs imposed by China and the US on $34bn of each other’s imports – that will come into force on Friday – are likely to have a small, negative impact on most of the emerging world. But some EMs... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs suggest most EMs weathering market turmoil The small rise in the emerging market manufacturing PMI last month provides an early sign that the turbulence in financial markets has not (yet) had much impact on aggregate economic activity. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How big a risk is the rise in EM sovereign FX debt? A surge in sovereign foreign currency debt issuance over the past 18 months has made Argentina’s recent economic turmoil worse and has contributed to the tensions that have arisen in Bahrain’s... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions start to tighten There are signs that the sell-off in EM markets is starting to cause financial conditions to tighten in some economies beyond Turkey and Argentina. These include Mexico, Brazil and South Africa. If... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM market fallout from trade fears escalating The details of the Trump administration’s threat to step up its trade conflict with China are not yet clear, but one notable feature is that the market fallout for the emerging world has been greater... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Currency sell-off tests resolve of some central banks History suggests that the sell-off in EM currencies over the past couple of months could be large enough to push central banks in Mexico, Brazil and South Africa to raise interest rates – although the... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Despite the market turmoil of recent weeks, problems in Turkey and Argentina look to be isolated incidents, with our capital flows Tracker giving no indication of large or widespread capital outflows... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Higher oil prices and the boost to EM oil exporters There are already signs that the large EM oil exporters are responding to higher oil prices by scaling back austerity, which will help to drive stronger growth this year. But it’s notable that higher... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
