Emerging Markets Economics Update EM consumers will continue to feel the pinch Higher oil prices have weighed on consumer conditions in the emerging world recently, but while the impact of higher energy inflation is set to fade in the months ahead, we still expect consumer... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) Our Tracker suggests that capital outflows from the emerging world remained small last month, and flows into EM bond and equity markets have recovered as the crises in Turkey and Argentina have eased... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does that latest jump in oil prices mean for EMs? The rise in oil prices to $85pb brings most major oil producers’ budgets close to balance (and in a few cases a large surplus) and could open the door for fiscal policy to be loosened in a few... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Further slowdown in EM manufacturing growth The fall in September’s EM manufacturing PMI painted a gloomy picture and adds to the mounting evidence that growth in parts of the emerging world faltered in Q3. What’s more, data at the granular... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation on the rise EM inflation increased to its highest level in more than a year and a half in August, and we think that this has further to run over the coming months. One consequence is that the monetary policy in... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What do EM car sales tell us? The latest EM auto sales figures echo survey data and financial indicators in suggesting that economic disruption following recent market turbulence has so far been contained to Turkey and Argentina... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) Last month’s currency crises in Turkey and Argentina triggered broad-based weakness in EM financial markets, but our Capital Flows Tracker suggests that aggregate outflows were relatively modest. 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How far do real interest rates rise in a currency crisis? In previous EM currency crises, real interest rates have increased (on average) by around 10.5%-11.0%-pts in the following year and remained more than 6.5%-pts above pre-crisis levels over the... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How do EMs adjust after a currency crisis? In the three years after a currency crisis, EMs almost always experience a collapse in imports, but the performance of exports is more mixed. Argentina looks similar to those economies that have seen... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will weaker currencies help or hinder EMs? The improvement in EM balance sheets over the past five years means that macroeconomic strains resulting from recent currency falls have been contained to Turkey and Argentina. Nonetheless, those EMs... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five points on the EM sell-off The EM sell-off appears to have become more broad-based in the last few days, although there is little evidence that – outside Turkey and Argentina – the market turmoil is resulting in macroeconomic... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing growth continues to weaken The further fall in the EM manufacturing PMI in August adds to the signs that EM growth lost momentum in Q3. The surveys also show that price pressures are building in parts of the emerging world. 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at EM external financing risks The sell-off in EM currencies has cast the spotlight onto external vulnerabilities in the emerging world, although there are important nuances to take into account. In this Update, we take a closer... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What explains the scale of recent EM currency falls? The extent of the falls in EM currencies seen since April have generally been closely correlated with the degree of countries’ external vulnerabilities. On almost all measures, Turkey and Argentina... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How does the latest EM sell-off stack up? Asset prices in Turkey and Argentina have fallen dramatically in recent weeks, while the moves in other countries’ markets look similar to previous EM sell-offs over the past decade. It’s still very... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What happens after an EM currency crisis? Both Turkey and Argentina have now suffered currency crises this year. In previous EM currency crises, economies experienced a sharp slowdown in GDP growth, averaging 5-6%-pts, and a rise in inflation... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
