Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) Net capital outflows from emerging markets slowed a bit in August, but the big picture is that they remained low by recent standards. Portfolio inflows weakened from the highs recorded earlier in Q3. 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still going strong in Q3 Last month’s PMIs suggest that conditions in EM manufacturing sectors improved in Q3, supported by most of the major BRIC economies. 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Total EM capital outflows remained pretty stable in July. Net portfolio inflows picked up a bit, though more recent figures suggest that this may have reversed in August. 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery soft at the start of Q3 July’s PMI data remain consistent with a continued expansion in EM manufacturing, albeit at a pace that is down slightly from the highs seen at the start of the year. 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed and ECB not the only games in town for EMs EM bond markets have, for the most part, shrugged off the rise in developed market bond yields since the end of June. This strengthens our view that policy normalisation in developed markets is... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that net capital outflows from emerging markets remained subdued in the first half of 2017. We expect that outflows will stay low over the coming quarters. 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM credit bubble is now (mostly) a China story The past couple of weeks have seen renewed concerns about credit risks in emerging economies. The key point that has been missed in much of the analysis, however, is that credit bubbles have begun to... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest drop in oil Within the EM world, the main beneficiaries of the recent drop in oil prices are Korea, India, Turkey, and South Africa, while the biggest losers are the Gulf States, Russia and Nigeria. That being... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting EM links with China The EMs with the deepest trade ties to China have, unsurprisingly, benefitted most from the economy’s rebound since the start of 2016. These countries lie mostly in Asia. It follows that these are the... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May) Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that net capital outflows from emerging markets stabilised in May. We expect that they will remain subdued over the remainder of the year. 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update More to structural EM weakness than investment behaviour Our view that EMs have entered a period of structurally weaker growth has started to become the mainstream, but there is a tendency to misdiagnose this as solely a problem of deficient investment... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery loses a bit more steam May’s PMI data point to a further softening in the recovery of emerging market manufacturing. Nonetheless, the survey still points to expansion, just at a slower pace than at the start of the year. 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three reasons not to fear Fed balance sheet normalisation There are still plenty of unanswered questions about the Fed’s plans to reduce the size of its balance sheet, but there are at least three reasons to think that it won’t cause a major dislocation in... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM markets fall, but economic fallout should be limited Political developments in the US and Brazil have led to sizeable falls in EM currencies and equities today but the economic implications for EMs are likely to be limited. Even in Brazil itself, it’s... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) Our Tracker shows that net capital outflows from emerging markets picked up in April. Outflows will probably accelerate further later this year, but they are likely to remain subdued by recent... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Latest commodity price falls don’t alter economic outlook for EMs The broad fall in commodity prices this week has weighed on EM commodity currencies, but it doesn’t do much to alter the economic outlook either for EM commodity producers or EM commodity consumers. 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
