Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are we in the EM economic cycle? Aggregate emerging market growth is likely to stabilise at close to 4% y/y in the coming quarters, but within this several different economic cycles are playing out. The recent resilience in Central... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry holding up The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI to a six-month high in September adds to our view that EM growth is stabilising, even as advanced economies continue to lose momentum. 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Middle East tensions and the impact on EM rates Rising tensions in the Middle East present a significant upside risk to our oil price and inflation forecasts, and could force a handful of EM central banks to abandon easing cycles or even hike... 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug. 2019) EM capital outflows persisted last month and, with the US-China trade war unlikely to abate, we think that they will continue in the coming quarters. However, the scale of outflows should remain... 25th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Capital controls: the good, the bad and the ugly Capital controls can be an effective tool if policymakers are able to plug loopholes and address the underlying economic vulnerabilities that initially resulted in pressures on the financial account... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Currency falls unlikely to derail EM easing cycles We expect EM currencies to come under further pressure over the coming quarters, but the falls are unlikely to be on the same scale as the ones which ended previous easing cycles. As a result, most EM... 5th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing showing signs of stabilisation The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI for August is further evidence that the slowdown in EM GDP growth has bottomed out. But the surveys remain consistent with sluggish growth, and we continue to... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul. 2019) After a relatively calm first half of 2019, EM capital outflows probably picked up significantly in August as US-China trade tensions escalated. And outflows are likely to remain larger over the... 21st August 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What happens after EM currency collapses? Emerging economies whose currencies have fallen by 15% or more against the dollar in a single day – as the Argentine peso did yesterday – have fallen into recession in 85% of cases in the last 25... 13th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Argentina’s (new) crisis and the hit to EMs The falls in EM currencies today suggest that the South African rand, Turkish lira and many of those in Latin America will remain in the firing line if, as we think likely, concerns about Argentina’s... 12th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The spiralling trade war and what it means for EMs The latest phase of the trade war is likely to have a relatively limited direct impact on EM exports. But with the US and Chinese policymakers upping the ante, the indirect effects via a hit to... 6th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trade war sell-off unlikely to halt EM easing cycles The falls in EM currencies in this latest leg of the trade war have been large compared with previous episodes. If this turbulence continues, a few EM central banks (e.g. in Indonesia and Mexico)... 5th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing stays weak in early Q3 The manufacturing PMIs for July suggests that growth in EM industry remained soft at the start of Q3, with activity in Emerging Europe weakening sharply. The surveys also provide further evidence that... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2019) Net capital outflows from emerging markets look to have persisted last month, suggesting that the US-China trade war continued to weigh on investor sentiment. The truce announced at the late-June G20... 17th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the EM investment slump EM investment growth probably slowed to its weakest rate in twenty years in early 2019, although most of that seems to be related to tighter financial conditions and low commodity prices rather than... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs add to evidence of Q2 slowdown The further fall in the EM manufacturing PMI last month suggests that EM growth slowed in Q2 and the forward-looking components of the survey point to a weak start to the third quarter. 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
