Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central bank responses to the coronavirus fallout The economic disruption from the coronavirus outbreak will lead to further rate cuts in much of Emerging Asia. And in those countries where currencies have fallen sharply, the moves have not been big... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the cost of the coronavirus on EMs The coronavirus outbreak will result in much weaker growth in China in Q1 and has hit tourism sectors elsewhere. If factory closures in China are prolonged, the epidemic could start to cause more... 4th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Solid January PMIs yet to capture coronavirus hit The January batch of EM manufacturing PMIs generally held up well, but the surveys are yet to capture the economic damage from the coronavirus outbreak. Extended factory closures in China are likely... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How important is Chinese tourism? Chinese international tourist spending has surged over the past decade, which is one reason to think that the economic spillovers will be greater for the coronavirus than they were for SARS. But... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for the EM easing cycle? We expect that the broad-based EM easing cycle has further to run in the coming months but, as growth and inflation in many countries rise, it will be less widespread than in 2019. More importantly... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2019) We estimate that net capital outflows from Emerging Markets fell to a six-month low in December, and they probably declined further at the start of this year. With global growth close to bottoming out... 23rd January 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Limited upside from Phase One trade deal The deal signed yesterday between the US and China was broadly as expected and has not led us to change our economic forecasts. The apparent ceasefire in the battle over tariffs removes a downside... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lower for longer: EM interest rates after the golden era This decade is likely to be marked by slower growth and softer inflation in emerging markets. One consequence is that interest rates will probably be lower than most currently anticipate. 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Oil prices, African Swine Fever & EM inflation Our measure of aggregate EM inflation, which hit a four and a half year high last month, should fall over the course of this year as the disruption caused by African Swine Fever fades. But this is... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI stable but external backdrop challenging The PMIs for December suggest that EM manufacturers, barring those in Latin America, ended 2019 on a firmer footing. Nonetheless, the external backdrop will remain challenging in 2020. 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2019) On a net basis, capital continued to flow out of Emerging Markets (EMs) last month, and we think that 2020 will be the seventh consecutive year of outflows. 11th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM debt: revisiting the risks Concerns about foreign currency debts in emerging markets have flared up again in recent weeks, but we think that the worst of these fears are probably overdone. FX debt burdens in most EMs have... 3rd December 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: Asia improves but Emerging Europe weakens The November manufacturing PMIs point to diverging prospects for EM manufacturers at a regional level, with conditions improving in most of Emerging Asia but deteriorating in Emerging Europe. 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2019) We estimate that net capital outflows from emerging markets (EMs) eased in October, and more timely data point to a further improvement so far this month. But we doubt that, on a net basis, capital... 20th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why a new wave of structural reforms is unlikely A new wave of structural reforms, if implemented, could plausibly lift average EM GDP growth by over 1%-pt in the 2020s. But we doubt that these reforms will be forthcoming. Even if they are, EM GDP... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A fiscal health check We expect most major EMs to loosen fiscal policy further next year. Weak public finances mean that a few major EMs, notably Brazil and South Africa, will need to tighten policy. But aside from... 7th November 2019 · 4 mins read
