Emerging Markets Economics Update Early current account warning signs in a few EMs Emerging economies’ external positions generally look strong. But current account deficits are starting to widen in a handful of countries in Latin America as well as in the Philippines and Poland... 17th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where do EMs sit in the business cycle? Aggregate EM GDP growth is likely to slow over the coming quarters but, as ever, there are many stories playing out at country level. Brazil is likely to lead the slowdown while growth in China will... 10th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Slow going for EM manufacturers Although the EM manufacturing PMI dipped in October, the index remains close to its highest level since the start of the year. Even so, China’s industrial sector has lost momentum recently and the... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China is no longer an EM outperformer China’s economy has grown faster than other EMs in aggregate every year outside of the pandemic so far this century. But that run is now coming to an end and we expect growth on our China Activity... 28th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2025) Capital inflows into EMs have held up well over the past month, largely a result of strong flows into equity markets (Korea in particular). While we expect EM currencies to depreciate over the next... 23rd October 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Dollar recovery only part of the story for EM FX After a relatively good run, we think EM currencies will generally depreciate over the coming quarters as the US dollar recovers. Heavily managed currencies in high-inflation economies like the... 21st October 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Friends with benefits: the US, Argentina and other EMs The US’s recent pledge of support for Argentina raises the question of whether other EMs facing financial difficulty might receive similar assistance. Pakistan and Jordan are potential candidates, as... 16th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation outlook (generally) more benign EM inflation has continued to fall and is now close to the rates recorded in the late 2010s, which will be welcomed by policymakers. But there are a few important outliers. Inflation looks set to... 14th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fiscal realities now biting in some major oil producers The 2026 budgets announced in Russia and Saudi Arabia in the past week point to significant fiscal tightening following declines in oil revenues and budget blowouts this year. Pressures for fiscal... 2nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tougher times ahead for EM manufacturing The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI in September was primarily driven by the jump in China. China (and India) aside, the EM PMIs generally remain weak and a combination of high US tariffs, tight... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2025) Capital inflows into EMs continued last month, with the restart of Fed easing and further declines in the dollar supporting bond inflows in particular. While we expect EM currencies to depreciate over... 26th September 2025 · 0 mins read
China Economics Update Rerouting providing less of an offset Our updated estimates suggest that trade rerouting is so far doing less to insulate Chinese exports from US tariffs than in the past. That’s largely because rerouting via Mexico hasn’t picked up since... 16th September 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Is Trump pushing India into China’s arms? The deterioration in Indo-US relations appears to have expedited New Delhi’s efforts to strengthen ties with Beijing, as highlighted by Prime Minister Modi’s first visit to China in seven years last... 11th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The threat to central bank independence in EMs Threats to central bank independence in the emerging world are, thankfully, rare at the moment (Indonesia is one current point of concern though). However, efforts to undermine independence would... 10th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing gains some momentum The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI in August suggests that the sector accelerated in Q3, helped by external demand. But, overall, conditions in manufacturing remain pretty weak and may deteriorate... 2nd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The implications of Mexican tariffs on China Mexico’s congress has approved a series of import tariff hikes that take effect next year and mainly target China. The tariffs help to achieve many of the Mexican government’s goals – appeasing the US... 28th August 2025 · 5 mins read
