Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs set for rate cuts, despite hikes in DMs While the Fed and the ECB are set to hike interest rates this week, subsiding inflation means that the upcoming EM central bank meetings will tilt towards monetary easing. And we expect that the EM... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing the early evidence of “friend-shoring” in EMs One way in which EMs may benefit from the fragmentation of the global economy into US- and China-aligned blocs is via “friend-shoring”. There appears to be evidence that the US is importing a higher... 19th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update El Niño risks concentrated in EMs The likelihood of an El Niño event in the second half of this year adds to upside risks to global inflation and downside risks to activity. For the advanced economies, higher prices of agricultural... 12th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul. 2023) Inflows into EM financial markets saw a further pick-up in the past month and are now at their highest level since late last year, driven by inflows into Turkey and India. Inflows to Turkey could be... 11th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s fizzling recovery and the impact on other EMs The fading of China’s reopening rebound will weigh on recoveries in EMs like Thailand and Hong Kong whose tourism sectors depend heavily on Chinese visitors, but otherwise we think it presents... 6th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM current account risks have declined sharply A significant number of EMs that were running large current account deficits last year – including much of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), Peru and Chile – have seen dramatic improvements in their... 5th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Broad-based weakness in EM industry The widespread falls in the EM manufacturing PMIs for June suggest that industry continued to struggle in Q2 and we think further weakness lies in store. Taken together with the easing price pressures... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update India headlining EM rise up the global rankings EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. India will become the world’s third-largest economy before 2030. More generally, EMs with rapid population... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of policy shifts in Turkey and Nigeria Governments in Turkey and Nigeria have started to turn away from unorthodox economic policies in recent weeks, and in both cases currencies have been allowed to move closer to fair value. The key... 21st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Recent EM export resilience starting to fade EM goods exports held up relatively well at the start of the year but more recent data suggest that resilience is waning. With demand from advanced economies set to soften, the boost from auto exports... 16th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Strong Q1 GDP, but growth slowdown in store EMs experienced a strong first quarter as GDP growth picked up almost across the board, but growth is likely to have slowed in most major economies in Q2 and we think it will remain soft in Q3. We don... 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2023) Inflows into EM financial markets have held up well over the past few weeks, with particularly strong inflows into local equities. That said, if we are right that a renewed period of global risk... 9th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from the “early hikers”: inflation remains sticky A handful of EM central banks were quick out of the blocks to tighten monetary policy in 2021 and one of the key lessons of the past year or so is that underlying inflation pressure is still proving... 8th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey needs a significant adjustment in the lira Signs that newly re-elected Turkish president Erdogan is willing to move away from unorthodox economic policies has led to an increase in investor optimism towards his country. These developments are... 7th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing: a better Q2 but weakness ahead The manufacturing PMIs for May suggest that EM industry has, in aggregate, strengthened in Q2. Nonetheless, with the surveys pointing to further weakness in key DM trading partners, EM industry is... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM labour markets still going strong EM labour markets have shown relatively little sign of adjustment in response to the recent weakening of growth. That’s likely to keep wage growth uncomfortably strong in Central Europe and Latin... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
