Emerging Markets Economics Update The SVB collapse & contagion risks in EMs At the time of writing, financial markets appear to be stabilising after the turmoil caused by the collapse of SVB. And it doesn’t look like EMs have suffered large capital outflows or strains in... 14th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM slowdowns and NPLs: lessons from the past Non-performing loan (NPL) ratios have risen by as much as 4-5%-pts during non-banking crisis downturns in EMs in the past. This time around, there are reasons to think that the increase will be... 6th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: industrial downturn bottoming out The manufacturing PMIs for February remained very weak in most EMs, but they did at least provide signs that industry across much of the emerging world has fared better so far this year than it did in... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The lessons from EM ‘turnaround’ elections Nigeria’s presidential election this weekend could be one of several EM elections this year (including Turkey and Argentina) that see opposition victories and a turn away from unorthodox policymaking... 21st February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM investment: weak outlook and clear divergence EM investment surged far above pre-pandemic levels last year, but there was a clear divergence across countries and we think investment growth will slow in 2023. One worrying development is that... 20th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How worrying is the renewed rise in EM core inflation? EM core inflation jumped to its highest rate in almost two decades in January. That can partly be pinned on China, where core inflation has risen from a very low rate. In most other EMs, core... 16th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks: earlier to hike, earlier to cut The raft of EM central bank meetings over the past couple of weeks reinforces the view that monetary tightening cycles have now drawn to a close or are very close to doing so, several months earlier... 10th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Foreign capital inflows have been soft this year in spite of the improvement in the economic outlook for EMs and the weaker dollar. And the very latest data suggest that capital has flowed out of EMs... 9th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Geopolitical tensions beginning to enter debt talks Investors’ concerns about sovereign debt risks in frontier markets have eased a touch recently but several countries, particularly Tunisia and Pakistan, remain on the path to default. The latest (and... 7th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s re-opening and EMs: three key questions We’ve received a lot of questions recently about the impact of China’s re-opening on EMs, including at our monthly Drop-in today. This Update answers three key questions on the winners and losers, the... 2nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks well placed to face rising loan losses EM banks will face an increase in loan losses this year, but the good news is that banking sectors on the whole appear well-placed to absorb these, particularly in parts of Latin America, Emerging... 2nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry: brighter outlook, but headwinds persist The manufacturing PMIs picked up in most emerging markets in January, offering hope that the worst for EM industry may have now passed. But activity remains soft against the backdrop of high interest... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM consumers: now feeling the pinch Consumer spending in emerging markets initially recovered quickly from the pandemic, but it looks like high interest rates and inflation caused spending growth to slow sharply over the second half of... 27th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Higher commodity prices and the impact on EMs China’s re-opening will have a significant impact on the rest of the emerging world by lifting commodity prices. That will improve the terms of trade of EM commodity producers, particularly Chile... 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are EM debt risks greatest? It looks highly likely that Tunisia’s government will this year follow in the footsteps of Sri Lanka and Ghana by defaulting on its external debts. Fortunately, public debt risks elsewhere don’t look... 17th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Foreign capital inflows into EMs have picked up a little since the beginning of the year. This should provide some relief to those countries with sizeable current account deficits, including Chile... 11th January 2023 · 2 mins read
