Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) The weaker-than-expected Turkish inflation figure for February, of 2.3% m/m, will provide some reassurance that the spike in January was a one-off. And it keeps the door open for the central bank to... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2024) The strong 1.7% q/q expansion in the Turkish economy in Q4 appears like a setback to the central bank’s efforts to bring down high inflation, but we don’t think this data is enough to throw the... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional growth may hold up a little better than we had been expecting in Q1. That said, firms... 27th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, and we think that its easing cycle will remain on pause throughout 2025. That’s a more hawkish view than the latest... 25th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) 24th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected activity data out of Poland for January suggest the economy has carried over some of the positive momentum from the end of last year. Alongside the recent strength of... 24th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response US-Russia talks don’t signal near-term end to the war The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel GDP (Q4) The slowdown in Israeli GDP growth, to 2.5% q/q annualised, in Q4 suggests the drag on activity from rising tensions with Hezbollah last quarter was a bit larger than we expected. The recent... 17th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, and we think there is limited scope for interest rate cuts this year. Our forecast for the policy rate to end the... 14th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to leave interest rates on hold at 21.00% today was widely expected, and the hawkish communications suggest that policymakers are not going to bend to... 14th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The Czech National Bank (CNB) cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 3.75%, and we think that further easing lies in store this year. Our forecast for the policy rate to fall to 3.00% by end-2025 would... 6th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The National Bank of Poland left its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, and we think that interest rates will remain on hold throughout 2025. That’s a more hawkish forecast than the consensus... 5th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs in Central Europe rose slightly last month, but the big picture is that they remained at weak levels. And the threat of US tariffs on the EU poses an additional headwind for the... 3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025) The sharp jump in the m/m rate of Turkish inflation, to 5.0%, was largely driven by one-off factors. And so long as the February CPI figures come in much softer (as we expect), we still think it’s... 3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) 28th January 2025 · 1 min read
