Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to slow the pace of its easing cycle today with a 50bp cut in its policy rate, to 16.50%, was pinned largely on the inflationary impact of the upcoming... 24th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2025) The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to further slow the pace of its easing cycle today with a 100bp cut to its one-week repo rate, to 39.50%, seems to reflect policymakers’ growing... 23rd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) delivered no surprises in leaving its base rate on hold today, at 6.50%, and we continue to think that the easing cycle will remain on pause this year. While we had... 21st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 4.50%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (including ourselves), although we think the scope for further... 8th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The National Bank of Romania left its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, and despite signs that the economy is struggling in response to recent fiscal tightening, we think interest rates will be... 8th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025) The pick up in headline inflation in Turkey last month, to 33.3% y/y, was driven in large part by another rise in food inflation and, with core inflation continuing to drop back, we think that the... 3rd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The weak batch of manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe in September suggest that industrial activity in the region is continuing to be held back by weak external demand. The surveys also suggests... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The hawkish communications from the Bank of Israel (BoI), as it left its policy rate on hold today, at 4.50%, suggest that expectations for interest rate cuts this year may be disappointed. While we... 29th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in September, but our regional measure of sentiment rose to a three-month high and points... 29th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The Czech National Bank left its policy rate on hold again today, at 3.50%, and in contrast to many analysts who still expect interest rates to be lowered further next year, we think that the risks... 24th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate unchanged again today, at 6.50%, and we think that the easing cycle will remain on pause over the rest of this year. While we currently forecast... 23rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The Central Bank of Russia opted for a smaller-than-expected 100bp cut in its policy rate today, to 17.00%, and the communications highlight policymakers’ concerns about pro-inflationary risks. Even... 12th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The decision by Turkey’s central bank to slow the pace of easing to 250bp didn’t come as a major surprise but the fairly hawkish communications support our view that real interest rates are likely to... 11th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The National Bank of Poland cut its policy rate by 25bp again today, to 4.75%, but we think that monetary easing over the coming year will be smaller than most anticipate. 3rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) The continued decline in Turkish inflation last month, to 33.0% y/y, keeps the door open to large interest rate cuts at the central bank’s meeting next Thursday. That said, with inflation coming in a... 3rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe remained at weak levels in August suggesting that industry continues to be a drag on the region’s growth. That said, other survey data suggest that... 1st September 2025 · 2 mins read
