Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The decision by the Central Bank of Russia to accelerate it is monetary easing cycle today with a 200bp cut to its policy rate, to 18.00%, signals that policymakers are becoming more concerned about... 25th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2025) The decision by Turkish central bank to cut its one-week repo rate by 300bp today, to 43.00%, was a slight dovish surprise, but the accompanying communications remained hawkish and we expect the pace... 24th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate unchanged today at 6.50%, and we think that interest rates will remain at this level throughout 2025. That’s a more hawkish view than the consensus... 22nd July 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (July) The communications accompanying the decision by the National Bank of Romania to leave its policy rate on hold, at 6.50%, suggest policymakers are concerned about the inflationary impacts of upcoming... 8th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The slightly more dovish communications accompanying the decision by the Bank of Israel (BoI) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 4.50%, and the easing in geopolitical risks, suggest that... 7th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (June) The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in June, to 35.0%, supports our view that the central bank will restart its easing later this month. We maintain our forecast for the one-week repo... 3rd July 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (July) The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 5.00%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (although not ourselves). With inflation likely to fall back... 2nd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (June) The weak batch of June manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe – and in particular some of the forward-looking components of the surveys – paint a downbeat view for industrial activity across the... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Flash CPI (Jun.) The small rise in Polish inflation, to 4.1% y/y, in June is likely to be followed by a fall back within the central bank’s target range over the second half of this year. We think this will give the... 30th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (June) The Czech National Bank left its policy rate on hold today, at 3.50%, and we think that further monetary easing is unlikely this year. That is a slightly more hawkish view than the consensus, which... 25th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (June) 24th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (June 2025) The statement accompanying the Turkish central bank’s decision to leave its key interest rates unchanged was hawkish, suggesting that policymakers want to push back against expectations for aggressive... 19th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (June) The decision by the Central Bank of Russia to cut its policy rate by 100bp today, to 20.00%, came as a dovish surprise, and we now think the policy rate will now end this year at 17.00% (18.00%... 6th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (June) The National Bank of Poland left its policy rate on hold today, at 5.25%, but this is only likely to mark a short pause in the easing cycle. We think that interest rates will be cut again at the... 4th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May 2025) The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in May, to 35.4%, will increase the CBRT’s confidence that it can restart its easing cycle soon. While we had thought the easing cycle would resume... 3rd June 2025 · 1 min read
