Energy Outlook Little upside for prices until lockdowns are lifted The global spread of the coronavirus has dealt an extraordinary blow to energy demand, and – for as long as the containment measures remain in place – it is hard to see much upside for prices. However... 28th April 2020 · 17 mins read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Mar.) Imports of gold into China and India continued to contract at a double-digit pace in March. But the plunge in physical demand has had little impact on the gold price, as it has been outweighed by... 27th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Metals Outlook The long road to recovery Measures designed to contain the spread of coronavirus have dealt a heavy blow to metals demand. Assuming that these measures are lifted at a global level in the second half of the year, we expect a... 27th April 2020 · 17 mins read
Commodities Weekly No respite for oil yet Well-placed fears that the world is fast running out of storage for crude buffeted oil prices this week. On an extraordinary day of trading, the spot price of WTI fell deep into negative territory on... 24th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Update Compliance by OPEC’s allies to improve over time OPEC’s allies recently agreed to cut output from May. While compliance with quotas is usually sub-par, we think that adherence to the quotas will be greater this time, in part because oil prices are... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Outlook It can only get better At the time of writing, economic activity has ground to a halt around the world owing to virus containment measures. For the most part, commodities prices have plunged given the collapse in demand. We... 24th April 2020 · 19 mins read
Asia Economics Update What do lower oil prices mean for Emerging Asia? Most countries in Emerging Asia are net importers of oil, so would usually stand to gain from a big drop in prices. But that benefit won’t materialise until consumer spending recovers. For Malaysia... 23rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Lower oil prices unlikely to hold most equity markets back While the plunge in oil prices may have played some part in yesterday’s equity market sell-off, we doubt that oil will have that big of a bearing on most developed world equity indices over the coming... 22nd April 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks jumped again last week, despite a small fall in production and a hefty drop in imports. Stocks are likely to continue to climb until the lockdowns are lifted, but the pace of increase... 22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The oil market rout, devaluations and defaults Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries should be able to weather the collapse in oil prices without abandoning dollar pegs, and Russia will still run looser fiscal policy this year than last. But... 22nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil producers heading into deeper crises The plunge in global oil prices has raised the risk of much steeper contractions in output in African oil producers, sharper currency falls, sovereign debt restructurings and problems at local banks. 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the costs of the oil price slump for Russia The plunge in oil prices won’t push Russia’s economy into a financial crisis, as it did in 2008/09 and 2015. But the government is likely to run its largest budget deficit since the late 1990s, which... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the impact of low oil prices on Mexico The plunge in oil prices is yet another drag on Mexico’s freefalling economy, and may hasten a move by Pemex to restructure its external debts. The government’s lacklustre response to the economic... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We doubt that gold will continue to outperform While gold has rallied over the past month, we don’t think that it will continue to outperform most other asset classes in the way that it did in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). On... 22nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Oil sector woes will hold back the recovery Whether negative or not, oil prices are now far below operating breakeven costs for many oil sands projects. That means firms are slashing production, and we doubt this lost output will be quick to... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update WTI tumbles below zero as the oil storage runs out The spot price of WTI turned negative yesterday in large part owing to the nature of trading in the futures market. That said, the price slump has some fundamental underpinning as demand is very weak... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
