Commodities Focus Sky-high European steel prices on borrowed time After soaring towards the tail end of 2020, steel prices in Europe have eased back in recent months. And we think that prices will fall much further over the next couple of years, as a combination of... 18th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The latest weekly data show falling crude and petroleum product inventories and a jump in implied demand. The strength in demand is somewhat surprising given the rise in gasoline prices, but we... 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Metals Watch Higher inflation won’t stop the gold price from falling In this Metals Watch, we revisit the theoretical relationship between the price of gold and inflation, before assessing how this relationship has held up throughout history . The key takeaway is that... 17th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Energy Watch China managing a coal market trilemma In this Energy Watch, we look at what recent policy changes mean for China’s coal market . The main take-away is that the changes should increase Chinese coal production and temper demand growth in... 16th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update What will the COP26 deal mean for commodities? Although the climate deal struck at COP26 appears to have fallen short on many counts, it does at least reaffirm our view that demand for traditional energy commodities will struggle in the long run. 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Copper supply set for further improvements Copper prices have soared since mid-2020 as demand raced ahead of supply. However, a strong supply response is now underway which, in tandem with cooling copper demand, will weigh on prices into 2022. 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ unlikely to ride to the rescue anytime soon Despite falling short of its targeted increase in output once again in October, we think OPEC+ will continue to snub calls to raise output more rapidly. The week began with comments from the Biden... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Nov.) Although OPEC oil production increased in October, it remained significantly below the group’s target. And with little prospect of a meaningful increase in non-OPEC output in the near term, we... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia unrest, Kuwaiti government, Oman fuel prices Escalating social unrest in Tunisia and opposition to fiscal reforms from the powerful UGTT labour union will make it more difficult for President Saied to push through much-needed fiscal reforms and... 11th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil in commercial storage rose last week for the second week on the trot, helped by a planned release of strategic reserves. But the big picture is that stocks remain low by past standards... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Fossil-like Norway won’t go the way of the dinosaurs The UN’s annual climate change conference, COP26, will not have any discernible impact on Norway’s intention to keep pumping oil and gas over the coming decades. The irony is that Norway’s success in... 10th November 2021 · 13 mins read
Energy Focus Lessons from the EU’s carbon permit market This year, the EU announced reforms to its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) which, if introduced, would boost the price of each carbon permit and ultimately help the bloc to rapidly reduce its... 10th November 2021 · 14 mins read
Commodities Update Pick-up in China metal imports unlikely to last China’s imports of iron ore and copper rose in October compared to a month prior (in seasonally adjusted terms). But we doubt this is the start of a renewed upswing, not least as indicators of demand... 8th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices may have peaked Most commodity prices fell this week, adding to the sense that the recent rally is close to a peak (if it hasn’t peaked already). Either way, we think energy prices will be falling next year on weaker... 5th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Metals Outlook Metals can’t escape China slowdown Industrial metals prices have risen recently on the back of supply concerns related to higher energy costs and power rationing in China. Both factors will continue to support prices in the near term... 3rd November 2021 · 20 mins read
Energy Outlook Prices to come off the boil in 2022 Following sizzling rallies in the prices of energy commodities in 2021, we expect prices to ease back in 2022 on the back of lower growth in demand and improved supply. Current high prices will... 1st November 2021 · 19 mins read
