Energy Update European gas prices to narrow gap with Asia next year We expect the unusually large discount in natural gas prices in Europe relative to those in Asia to shrink in the year ahead as the recovery in European demand gathers pace. 18th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks declined in the latest data as net imports plummeted. But refinery activity remains subdued and the latest virus-related restrictions could see lower product demand in the coming weeks... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Dec.) OPEC cut its 2021 oil demand forecast in its latest report, which we suspect could delay further easing of its production cuts early next year. This should help put a floor under prices. 14th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices begin to claw back lost ground Despite the re-introduction of lockdown measures in some US states, industrial commodities prices continued to rise this week on the back of ongoing hopes of a vaccine-induced economic boom next year... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Update Assessing the outlook for coal-gas switching in Europe The substitution of coal for natural gas in European power generation has reversed in recent months, but we doubt that this marks the start of a new trend. Instead, we think that gas-based power in... 11th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Reviewing the risks to our 2021 oil price forecast We forecast that a substantial pick-up in oil demand in the second half of next year amidst a backdrop of constrained supply will push Brent oil prices to around $60 per barrel by end-2021. That said... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update The risks to our gold price forecast are to the downside We expect that the price of gold will trade at around $1,900 per ounce through 2021 as US real yields remain low. That said, we recognise that there are some key downside risks to our forecast. US... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The huge counter-seasonal build in US commercial crude stocks last week was driven by a surge in net imports. We expect that it will take some time before stocks fall back to more “normal” levels. 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Rally in agriculturals to end, despite vaccine support We have now factored the rollout of an effective COVID-19 vaccine into our forecasts and, as a result, we are slightly more positive on the demand outlook for some agricultural commodities. That said... 8th December 2020 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch Q1 OPEC+ output to be less than headlines suggest We think that OPEC+ production will rise by less than the new agreement allows. Some countries will make compensatory cuts, while weak Q1 demand could prevent monthly rises in February and March. 7th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ provides more questions than answers After much wrangling, this week OPEC+ agreed to a partial roll over of its current collective output cut into next year. But the obvious divisions between members of the group mean the question marks... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Metals on a tear, for now Industrial metals prices rallied in November. While we expect demand growth to stay strong in the months ahead, on the back of robust economic activity in China, we think that it will slow in 2021 as... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Energy Chart Pack On the way up The prospect of effective COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to most energy commodities in November as they have raised the prospect of higher demand in 2021. We anticipate a particularly strong rebound in... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks dipped last week as net imports sank. Meanwhile, with COVID-19-related restrictions now present in a number of large states, we suspect that demand will remain low for a few months yet. 2nd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Vaccines mean higher commodity demand in 2021 A flurry of positive news surrounding effective COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to most commodity prices in November, as a faster easing of virus containment measures next year should provide a lift to... 1st December 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs are unreservedly positive for commodities China’s November PMI readings surprised on the upside but were consistent with the rally in industrial metals prices last month. Given that fiscal stimulus is ongoing and export growth remains robust... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
