Commodities Update Coffee prices to ease back, but remain elevated We think that Arabica and Robusta coffee prices will remain historically high over the next 12 months or so, but especially the Robusta price owing to greater El Niño-related supply risks. With that... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s recession deepens Oil output cuts fuelled Saudi Arabia’s economic downturn in the first half of 2023 and the drag from the oil sector appears to have intensified more recently. Taking together with signs that activity... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Natural gas prices strike higher Natural gas prices were the biggest mover in commodity markets this week, jumping higher on the back of news of potential industrial action at LNG plants in Australia. We don’t think gas prices in... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think oil’s muted impact on markets will continue Despite oil prices hitting new year-to-date highs, other factors seem to be dominating the effect of rising oil prices on equity, bond, and FX markets. Even if, as we expect, oil prices edge lower... 9th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 9th August 2023 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports falter but won’t collapse China’s commodity import volumes fell in July compared to June. Policy support should help lift metals imports over the next few months. And although crude oil imports fell sharply, we think that... 8th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Tightening oil market; Myanmar’s tin mining ban It’s been a mixed week for commodity prices. Industrial metals price generally struggled as activity surveys for China paint a grim picture of demand. (See Chart 1.) We suspect prices will tread water... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Focus Lower agriculturals supply will mean higher prices for longer The outlook for global agricultural supply has deteriorated since the start of the year as a result of extreme weather, the end of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the prospect of an El Niño weather... 4th August 2023 · 13 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Record SAIBOR, Egypt FX crunch, Saudi extends oil cut The Saudi Arabian interbank rate hit its highest level in over two decades and, with credit growth in the Kingdom slowing, pressure is likely to mount on the Saudi Central Bank to intervene and inject... 3rd August 2023 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update India’s rice export ban: a food security warning shot? We think the price of rice is set to climb after India’s additional rice export restrictions have exacerbated global shortage concerns. For now, though, we don’t expect other major producers to follow... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs are grim reading for commodities demand China’s PMIs suggest that commodities demand has come completely off the boil. For the recent rally in industrial metals prices to be sustained, China’s policymakers will have to deliver on promises... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Energy Focus The implications of EV rollouts on DM oil demand The message from electric vehicle sales data is now clear: the EV revolution is alive and kicking and poses important implications for oil demand. We are slightly more optimistic on the pace of EV... 31st July 2023 · 19 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jun.) Global steel production growth picked up in June, albeit only to a pace consistent with stagnant growth. With the rise in output in China on shaky ground and weak demand beginning to weigh on supply... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: end of Black Sea deal to add to near-term pain The end to the Black Sea grain deal has put Egypt’s vulnerability to rising global wheat prices back in the spotlight. Even if supply disruptions are avoided, higher wheat prices would add to strains... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Upside risks to our agricultural price forecasts In a week when the US dollar strengthened and the 2-year US Treasury yield rose, agricultural and energy commodity prices still climbed on the back of supply concerns. In the case of agriculturals... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly How will the rice export ban affect the economy? The partial ban on rice exports announced this week will have a small impact on India's trade balance and, similarly, it is unlikely to reduce inflation much either. The bigger concern for... 21st July 2023 · 3 mins read
