Commodities Update Lumber price to ease back on demand weakness After fluctuating between $500 and $600 per 1,000 board feet for most of this year, we expect the US lumber price to fall from around $520 today to $475 by the end of the year due to weaker demand... 5th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi non-oil sector softening blow from oil output cuts Activity in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector has continued to hold up well, but that is merely cushioning the blow to the economy from oil output cuts. 5th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs suggest commodities demand is subdued China’s PMI aren’t consistent with some of the worst fears around China’s reopening recovery and weak commodities demand. But neither are they positive enough to warrant the boost to prices, such as... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly US crude exports rise; China’s demand to drive prices There wasn’t a consistent direction to commodity prices this week. Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia rose, indicating stronger competition for LNG cargos. Meanwhile, most industrial metals prices... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Q3 Macro and Markets Outlook – From resilience to recession and beyond 1689084000 Will activity continue to hold up, or will monetary tightening take an ever greater toll on advanced economies?
Commodities Outlook Energy prices to buck the downbeat trend We expect most commodity prices to struggle this year against a backdrop of a stronger dollar and deteriorating investor risk appetite. Energy-related commodities will be the exception. We expect... 29th June 2023 · 31 mins read
Commodities Weekly Growing upside risks to our grains price forecasts With the Fed still hinting at more interest rate increases, the dollar strengthened and contributed to declines across most commodity prices this week. One of the few prices that did increase was the... 23rd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil output cuts driving Gulf slowdown Economic growth across the region will be much weaker this year than last and our forecasts are generally below the consensus. We think regional growth will come in at just 1.4%, one of the weakest... 21st June 2023 · 20 mins read
Energy Update Aviation will account for the bulk of oil demand growth Despite jet fuel being a fairly small share of total oil consumption, we suspect it will drive a large chunk of the 1.4m bpd growth in crude oil demand we anticipate this year. We think jet fuel... 21st June 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Climate Drop-In: Industry’s decarbonisation challenge – From aviation to property 1688047200 As governments scramble to meet climate goals, the transport and property industries are facing mounting regulatory and consumer pressure to achieve net zero targets.
Industrial Metals Update Headwinds growing for lead demand We think that the lead price will struggle over the next few months as high interest rates weigh on new vehicle (and lead-acid battery) demand growth and new supply comes online in Australia and... 19th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly China stimulus a possible lifeline for metals demand Most prices rose this week, helped by a weaker dollar, stronger-than expected US retail sales in May and interest rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China. Natural gas prices rose particularly sharply... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update China, OPEC+ & the prospects of commodity currencies Despite faltering commodity prices and growing concerns around China’s economic rebound, most commodity currencies have held up reasonably well this year. But we continue to think that will change in... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
OPEC Watch Supply constraints still likely to push the oil price higher The latest OPEC oil market report confirms that OPEC countries implemented a fresh round of voluntary production cuts in May, slashing the group’s crude output by 0.4m bpd. Similar to OPEC’s own view... 13th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update No need to panic about Europe’s gas supply … yet Having fallen steadily for much of the last year, European natural gas prices surged last week. The catalyst was constrained supply. Given seasonally high stocks and subdued demand, we are not worried... 12th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand indicators to continue to drive prices for now The oil price ended the week flat despite Saudi Arabia pledging to cut output by 1m bpd in July at the OPEC+ meeting last weekend. Most other commodity prices rose, supported by China’s May trade data... 9th June 2023 · 6 mins read
