Commodities Update Attention turns to demand & South American harvests In spite of the increase in demand for animal feed projected in the latest WASDE, we expect the global supply of the major grains and soybeans to be ample at current or even lower prices. 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Muted response to US data suggests "Fed taper" priced in The limited reaction in commodity markets to the stronger-than-expected US employment report supports our view that Fed tapering may not be the watershed that many still expect. In particular, the... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent - WTI spread to narrow as both prices fall back The widening of the spreads between the prices of Brent and US benchmark crudes should reverse over the next year as new pipelines ease the logistical constraints that have contributed to the glut of... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rebound in oil sector supports Saudi Q3 GDP growth Saudi Arabian Q3 GDP data showed that growth picked up as a rebound in the oil sector more than offset a slowdown in the rest of the economy. Looking ahead, growth may accelerate over the coming... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian economy may be finding its feet November's PMI data provide further evidence that the Egyptian economy may be finding its feet after a tumultuous summer. Meanwhile, the Saudi PMI pointed to a pick-up in growth in the non-oil sector... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Supply and Fed fears dominate The prospects for supply have been the key driver of most commodity prices in the last few months. The main exception is precious metals, where sentiment has been undermined – perhaps excessively so –... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sugar prices still have further to fall Even though the global price of sugar has already slumped by around a third over the last three years, we think it has further to go. We expect the US benchmark sugar price to finish 2014 at 15 cents... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will bitcoin ever become mainstream? The surge in the value of bitcoin has encouraged speculation that it could become a credible alternative to fiat currencies and a serious financial asset in its own right, perhaps even supplanting... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What could China's Third Plenum mean for steel? In the short term the economic reform package set out at the end of a meeting of top Chinese government officials, known as the Third Plenum, should have little impact on the prices of steel or... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian markets see renewed volatility Continued uncertainty over when the US Federal Reserve will start to taper its asset purchases under QE3 has led to renewed volatility across Asian financial markets over the past month. Currencies... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What could the deal with Iran mean for oil prices? The deal between Iran and the West is unlikely to result in an immediate increase in oil supplies, but it does lay the groundwork for a potentially much more significant agreement next year. We expect... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China and euro-zone PMIs point to weak industrial demand As if the uncertainty over Fed tapering were not enough to worry about, early business survey indicators from China and the euro-zone suggest that demand for industrial commodities will disappoint. 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cut in ethanol law knocks back hopes of higher corn demand The proposed reduction in the Renewable Fuels Standards in the US could reduce US corn consumption by over 4% next year compared to likely consumption under the current law. This should put further... 19th November 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Oil prices to end the decade much lower The price of a barrel of Brent has remained well above $100 for most of the last three years, due in part to uncertainties created by the “Arab Spring”. However, over the next five to ten years, a... 19th November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold demand statistics not all bad news Data published by the World Gold Council today report that global demand for gold fell by more than a fifth in Q3 relative to the same period a year earlier, as Western investor appetite waned and... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angolan oil boom masks longer-term problems A boom in oil production should ensure that economic growth in Angola remains strong over the next couple of years. But history suggests that it is difficult to sustain strong energy-led growth over a... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
