Commodities Weekly Surge in silver prices will go into reverse next year While some analysts have pinned the record-breaking silver rally on structural forces, we think the scale and speed of price increases suggest that market exuberance spilling over from the gold rally... 12th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s non-oil economy faces growing headwinds in 2026 The Saudi economy has been boosted by the unwinding of oil output cuts this year and this will continue over the coming quarters, but a step up in fiscal consolidation efforts means that overall GDP... 10th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Copper hits all time high but we expect prices to ease lower The rally in copper prices to an all-time high has its roots in rising supply concerns, particularly following the announcement by a group of Chinese smelters that they intend to cut output by 10% in... 5th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) Copper’s supply crunch masks weakening demand The rally in copper, which has driven prices to all-time nominal highs, has its roots in supply concerns, which are likely to persist into 2026. But we... 5th December 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Strengthening growth and shifting alignments The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest pace of GDP growth (outside the post-pandemic recovery) since 2011 next year. Continued oil output hikes and the switch on of Qatar’s... 4th December 2025 · 22 mins read
Commodities Update New Simandou supply will sink iron ore prices Against the backdrop of weakening demand, the ramp-up in iron ore supply from the Simandou mine in Guinea is a key driver of our below-consensus view that iron ore prices will fall sharply over the... 2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Growth prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa look bright, with inflation low or falling for most and a monetary easing cycle well under way, with many central banks likely to cut rates deeper than most... 28th November 2025 · 0 mins read
Commodities Weekly Fall in EU natural gas prices has further to run The recent fall in the EU natural gas benchmark to below €30 per MWh has its roots in a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, but we are sceptical that any agreement would have much direct... 28th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Beef and edible oils the exceptions to falling food prices While most agriculturals prices – and food price inflation – will decline alongside crude oil prices next year, structural supply headwinds will keep the prices of edible oils and beef elevated. 24th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly War and peace in energy markets While crude oil and natural gas prices have fallen as the US attempts to broker a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, we think that the impact of a formal end to the war on prices would be... 21st November 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Nov. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with our latest forecasts and calls to reflect key developments across the region. We expect the Middle East and North Africa to record very... 20th November 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Thinking through a potential end to the war in Ukraine Media reports suggest that the US and Russia are drafting a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, seemingly on terms favourable to Russia. Were this to materialise, a lack of sufficient security... 20th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Focus Assessing geopolitical risk in the oil market This Focus introduces a new tool in our oil analysis toolkit that allows us to examine and highlight how oil traders’ market positioning changes over time. This new tool will be particularly useful... 19th November 2025 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Focus What to make of euro-zone inflation differentials Next year, inflation is likely to remain higher in Spain and Germany than in Italy and France. But unlike in the 2000s, inflation differentials are not currently a sign that unsustainable imbalances... 19th November 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation to fall below 2% soon Euro-zone inflation has hovered close to or above the 2% target for over a year, but we think it will fall to about 1.5% in January and average just 1.3% in 2026. 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update 5 key questions about AI and demand for commodities This Update examines five key questions about AI-related demand for commodities, and the economic consequences of potential future disruptions to their supply. 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
