Commodities Update Risks to the price of sugar remain to the downside We expect the price of sugar to remain close to its current level this year due to the continuing glut on the world market. A decision by India to re-introduce export subsidies would push the global... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Metals prove resistant Given the significant headwinds – a strengthening US dollar, slower growth in China’s industrial sector and the collapse in oil prices – metals prices held their ground well in January. The two... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Partial recovery in oil prices ideal for world economy The recent pick-up in oil prices has the potential to develop into a “Goldilocks” scenario: prices high enough to keep most oil producers in business, but low enough to provide a substantial boost to... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could Norwegian property go from hero to zero in 2015? As oil prices have continued to fall, the prospects for economic growth and occupier demand in the Norwegian property markets have softened. However, with the krone now beginning to look cheap... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Precious metals prove their worth Commodity prices stabilised towards the end of January after sharp falls in oil and copper earlier in the month. The strength of the US dollar and concerns about global growth remain significant... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are low freight costs signalling a wider slowdown? The latest fall in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), taking it to its lowest level since 1986, has added to concerns about the health of global demand. But the BDI is best viewed simply as a guide to the... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More budget cuts likely in Mexico Spending cuts announced by the Mexican government worth 0.7% of GDP are unlikely to be enough to compensate for the loss of oil revenues this year and further spending cuts are likely later this year... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Downsides of lower oil prices are overstated We think that the risks to the public finances and output in the oil and gas sector from lower oil prices are exaggerated. And while investment in the North Sea might suffer, stronger investment in... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold to benefit from revival of Grexit concerns Whether or not Greece ultimately exits the euro, we expect the price of gold to be boosted further this year by the return of safe-haven demand as the country’s financial problems drag on. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Mine closures will lift zinc prices in 2015-16 Solid demand growth coupled with rapidly deteriorating mine supply prospects suggest zinc prices are set to rise in 2015-16. However, the potential for the release of unofficial stocks and restarts of... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Copper caught up in January sell-off The copper price has continued to tumble this week. We suspect this is due to financial factors rather than underlying fundamentals. The copper market’s high liquidity has made it vulnerable to... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Big number of small winners > small number of big losers Last week, mixed news on corporate earnings and an unexpected decline in underlying capital goods orders in December renewed fears that recent market moves are somehow a net negative for the US... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Bargain hunting to boost China’s commodity imports in 2015 Opportunistic buying supported strong growth in Chinese imports of many industrial commodities in 2014. We expect this trend to continue this year, supporting prices. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Are very low bond yields here to stay? We forecast US Treasury yields to rise only gradually amid the onset of tighter Fed policy, while the yields of governments bonds in many other developed economies should remain very low against the... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How hard will lower prices hit oil producers’ budgets? The collapse in oil prices will, of course, have a big negative impact on the fiscal positions of the world’s major oil producers. But countries with large fiscal buffers, including the Gulf economies... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Reasons to be optimistic about Korea’s economy in 2015 Korea stands to be one of Emerging Asia’s biggest beneficiaries from lower oil prices, and will also be boosted by a recovery in the housing market and by expansionary fiscal policy. We think most... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
