Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: EMs in an era of low oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices will provide a welcome boost to growth in the majority of emerging economies in 2015, but at the cost of slower growth in much of the Middle East and deepening crises in a... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Low oil price drives up US high-yield corporate spreads The spreads over Treasuries of US high-yield corporate bonds have risen further since the end of November, continuing their increase since the autumn. This has largely been driven by a rise in... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Deflation: Can "it" happen here after all? The collapse in global crude oil prices means that consumer price inflation will fall below zero in January and could remain in negative territory for most of the next 12 months. Nevertheless, the... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Cheap oil to slash inflation and bolster growth The slump in oil prices, along with renewed concerns about Greece, have taken a toll on investor confidence in the past week or so, causing equity markets to fall and demand for safe-haven assets to... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Oil price plunge won’t distract MPC from underlying picture With the recovery showing signs of frailty and the chances of deflation growing, the MPC is under little immediate pressure to raise interest rates. But since lower oil prices should put the spring... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.) & EZ Retail Sales (Nov.) December’s EC business and consumer survey did little to alter the picture of weak euro-zone GDP growth at the end of 2014 and suggested that renewed concerns about Greece and Russia offset the... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Early end to strike doesn’t solve coal sector’s problems The end to strike action in India’s coal sector three days earlier than planned should ensure a quick resumption to normal production levels, which will reduce the risk of blackouts in the near term... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) December’s Economic Sentiment Indicators provide further evidence that, despite the headwinds from both the euro-zone and Russia, growth in Central and Eastern Europe held up well at the end of last... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus A bleak future for South Africa’s metals mining sector Precious metals mining in South Africa is in long-term decline and lower prices are undermining profitability. Although the country’s near-monopoly on global platinum and palladium reserves suggests... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fall in oil prices leaves Ecuador facing sharp slowdown Ecuador’s economy faces a slump this year as the sharp fall in oil prices threatens to open up large twin current account and budget deficits. As a result, we are revising down our forecast and now... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The full effects of the plunge in oil prices on the US international trade deficit have yet to be felt, which means that the deficit may soon shrink to a five-year low of around $34bn. 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Cause for optimism in 2015 In our first Watch of 2015, we outline the prospects for India’s economy over the coming year. Falling commodity prices should brighten the outlook by providing a boost to consumer spending and... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Temporary deflation won’t prevent rate hikes The latest fall in crude oil prices means that headline CPI inflation will drop below zero in January and could remain in negative territory for most of the year. Nevertheless, this bout of deflation... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Oil price decline to bolster recovery in 2015 The halving of oil prices over the past six months should provide some timely support to the economic recovery. Indeed, coupled with the freezing of energy bills this winter, lower oil prices should... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What to make of the latest slump in oil prices There is no compelling reason why oil prices cannot fall further in the near term, but the current market panic looks increasingly overdone. Other commodity prices have held up relatively well. We... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) The rise in December’s whole economy PMIs suggests that, in spite of the plunge in oil prices at the end of last year, economic activity in the Gulf has held up reasonably well. Meanwhile, Egypt’s... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
