Europe Economics Update For how long will low oil prices boost spending growth? The declines in oil prices since last summer might add as much as 1 percentage point to euro-zone consumer spending growth this year. However, unless oil prices fall further, which we do not expect... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Competition from soy will push palm oil prices lower The price of palm oil has struggled to find asense of direction this year, falling below MYR2,100 per tonne in April, before recovering to MYR2,300 by early June. In this Agricultural Commodities... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The only way is up for nickel prices The price of nickel has fallen by nearly 10% from last Friday, despite early signs of a pick-up in globalnickel demand. Given that we expect supply to become more constrained in the second half of... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (May) Activity data from Chile released today were a mixed bag – while retail spendingremained buoyant, industrial output fell sharply. All told, the recent run of softerdata means that our GDP Tracker is... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China still controls its REE exports, despite “looser” regime Despite “loosening” its rare earths (REE) export regime, China will continue to control global supply. As such, our view remains that REE prices are unlikely to fall much further. 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa dodges power price hike, but crisis will linger South Africa’s energy regulator has rejected a proposed hike to electricity prices, sparing South Africa’s overstretched consumers the pain of higher prices. But the decision will only exacerbate the... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Weakness in PGM prices should prove temporary Expectations of a strong increase in mine supply,coupled with abundant above-ground stocks,have prompted many analysts to revise down theirforecasts for platinum and palladium prices thisyear and... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Adverse weather boosts agriculturals The prices of many agricultural commodities rose this week as adverse weather, notably in the US but also in Europe, clouded prospects for forthcoming harvests. Meanwhile, the prices of industrial... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China’s gold imports (May) A sharp rise in mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong in May could have been driven by fears of a further correction in Chinese equities. While imports from India were up 16% y/y in May, they... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Waiting for zinc ... Tightening supply, as a number of large mines close, is often cited as a key reason why investors and analysts have been positive on the outlook for zinc prices. However, the expected market tightness... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slightly sweeter times ahead for the price of sugar A mountain of sugar has been the catalyst for prices falling to a six-and-a-half year low. However, higher ethanol output in Brazil and a small world sugar deficit in 2015/16 should help to lift the... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How will China’s rebalancing affect consumption patterns? In the short to medium term, rising incomes will remain the key driver of changing dietary patterns in China, particularly for meat demand. However, a shift towards consumption-led growth and... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Lifting of sanctions on Iran is a major downside risk to oil prices The likely easing of sanctions on Iran is one of several downside risks to global oil prices over the remainder of the year. Admittedly, it may not be until 2016 before Iran can meet its side of any... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The pace of the fall in crude oil stocks accelerated this week. At the same time, gasoline stocks rose but there were more positive indicators of demand with an upturn in refinery activity and strong... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What does China’s rebalancing mean for energy markets? China’s efforts to rebalance its economy away from investment, manufacturing and exports towards a more consumer-led growth model are likely to have major implications for all types of energy... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A closer look at China’s import data China’s import data continue to suggest that, in general, demand for agricultural commodities remains weak. The main exception is sugar, where imports surged on low world prices. 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
