Energy Update Oil prices likely to continue to rise, but slowly The rebound in the price of Brent over the last two weeks supports our view that oil prices will gradually climb back to around $70 per barrel over the medium term helped on their way by further... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Strong demand to lift palladium prices Expectations of strong growth in US and Chinese auto output and sales in 2015 underpin our forecast of a recovery in palladium prices. At the same time, supply remains constrained. 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Oil price slump bad news for Texas and North Dakota The collapse in crude oil prices does not bode well for Texas and North Dakota, the two key producers of shale oil. These states have experienced a surge in oil production since 2008 and are now... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Trade (Jan.) India’s trade deficit narrowed in January as the sharp fall in global oil prices continued to feed through to the import bill. The smaller deficit provides the central bank with further scope to... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil edging towards an energy crisis An intensifying drought in Brazil has made it increasingly likely that the authorities will implement some form of power rationing over the coming months. Much remains uncertain, but we think that... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Focus What next for global metals demand? Concerns about global growth prospects, and particularly the slowdown in China, have reportedly been a key factor in the recent falls in metals prices. However, we would argue that these fears are... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Prospects of supply cuts boost oil and coal prices The main story since the beginning of the year has been the recovery in the price of oil, which is now 20% above its recent lows, reflecting the first signs of supply cuts in response to the previous... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf set for weaker growth, North Africa to outperform The fall in oil prices has led to a sharp reversal of fortunes in the Middle East and North Africa. Fears of steep falls in output in the Gulf are overdone, but growth will weaken in the coming years... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese steel prices to remain in the doldrums Lower input costs, weakening demand and overproduction led to sharp falls in Chinese steel prices over the last year. In our view, these factors will continue to weigh on the Chinese steel market in... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Split in EM export performance is widening The value of EM exports continued to fall in annual terms in December, with oil producers faring especially poorly. The early signs are that Asia's manufacturing-oriented economies will report weak... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another week of record stock levels and production will disappoint those hoping that last week’s surge in prices was the start of a new bull market. However, the rate of growth of stocks and output is... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Higher demand can’t offset rise in production In spite of higher forecast demand, the USDA has also revised up its estimates of year-end stocks for corn and wheat. And with ample soybean supplies, we continue to expect prices of all three to fall... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks failing to signal demand trends Stock movements, in general, continue to tell us more about the attractiveness of holding commodity assets off-market rather than anything about underlying physical demand. However, low official... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch Oil glut likely to continue in the first half of 2015 Oversupply in the oil market will probably continue until demand picks up and US oil production growth begins to ease off in the summer. This will limit the upside for prices in the coming months. 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Rate hike could still come sooner than markets think Markets have revised their expectations for interest rates significantly, such that they now expect the first rise in Bank Rate to occur in Q1 next year, some four months earlier than they did at the... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Dec.) December’s rise in South African manufacturing production showed that the sector ended the year on a high. There are also signs that manufacturers started this year fairly strongly. Although growth is... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
