Europe Economics Weekly Weak growth hindering euro-zone’s fiscal progress Greece last week passed the necessary reforms to start negotiations with its creditors on a third bailout. But with the country back in recession, it will struggle to meet the creditors’ fiscal goals... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Short-term supply concerns boost prices Renewed strength of the US dollar over the past month and a deterioration in sentiment towards commodities in general as an asset class, have been headwinds for commodity prices. However, short-term... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Asia Cocoa Grindings (Q2) Data on Asia’s Q2 cocoa grindings revealed a 12% y/y decline, the fourth consecutive y/y fall. This follows data released last week which showed continued weakness in North America and Europe. 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China, Japan & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) Today’s weak PMI reading from China will reinforce the negative sentiment towards commodities, notably industrial commodities, but demand should still pick up on further policy easing. Meanwhile... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (1st-16th Jul.) Wet weather in the first half of July meant that the amount of sugar cane harvested in Brazil fell 37% compared to the second half of June. As a result, both sugar and ethanol production dropped... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How low could gold go? In an earlier Precious Metals Update, “Quantifying the downside – and upside – for gold” (13 th March), we suggested that the gold price could fall as low as $850 per ounce in a worst case scenario... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What are global auto sales telling us about PGM demand? Despite slowing auto sales in China, we believe autocatalyst demand for platinum and palladium will increase by at least 3% in 2015, helping to underpin our positive view on the prices of both metals... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Iran oil production to rebound to previous levels and more The recent deal between Iran and the Wes tmeans that it is now very likely that substantial volumes of oil from Iran will return to the market. (We note that although a final agreement is not... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s gas sector reaches a turning point This week’s announcement that Italian energy group Eni has discovered gas reserves in the Nile Delta provides the first concrete evidence that the Egyptian government’s energy reforms are starting to... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A stronger BDI need not signal higher commodity prices The sharp rebound in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) since the end of May has been seen by some as a harbinger of a more positive outlook for demand and prices of bulk commodities. However, we would argue... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investor sentiment towards commodities tanks Broad-based weakness saw industrial commodity price indices slip between mid-June and mid-July. The S&P GSCI agriculture index bucked the trend, although it too has eased back recently. What’s more... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jun. 15) World Steel Association (WSA) data for June show a 2.4% y/y decline in global steel output, with falls in most of the largest producers. 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose last week as another unseasonal increase in commercial inventories was complemented by an addition to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Economy was gaining momentum at end of Q2 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) points to growth being markedly slower than the official figures show. That said, it supports the view that growth stabilised in Q2 and that policy support has recently... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Crisis = opportunity? Sentiment towards commodities as an asset class has rarely, if ever, been more negative. This is understandable given the persistent weakness of prices and the headwinds on both the demand and supply... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Drought adds to Thailand’s economic headwinds A severe drought in Thailand is hurting its agricultural sector and adding to the country’s economic woes. Rising downside risks to growth will increase pressure on the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
