Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks rose last week as a number of US refineries performed maintenance. But demand for products remained high, meaning stocks of gasoline fell. 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Agricultural prices go into reverse After a generally positive mid-June to mid-July period, the prices of mostagricultural commodities have since gone into reverse, with many sufferingheavy falls. Indeed, six of the eleven commodities... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Industrial Production (Jul.) The raft of Russian activity data for July, released today, showed that the economy continued to contract by 4-5% y/y at the start of Q3. And the latest drop in oil prices means that the fall in... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Fears, not facts, driving copper prices lower The recent slump in copper prices has more to do with investors’ fears about China’s future copperdemand, than with the reality of Chinese copper usage. As such, we would expect a sharp rebound... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Recovery in drilling activity likely to be temporary We doubt that the rise in the number of active drilling rigs in the US over the last few weeks will continue for much longer, despite improvements in efficiency. A renewed decline should weigh on US... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Why hasn’t China’s new resource tax led to higher REE prices? The costs of rare earth elements (REEs) have continued to fall despite China’s new tax regime. However, we think that it is only a matter of time before higher taxes and positive demandfundamentals... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lead and zinc markets set to tighten Subdued demand in the first half of this year meant that the lead and zinc markets were in surplus. However, with supply expected to tighten and demand to strengthen, prices should pick up from here. 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold price to be supported by central banks’ buying In the last month, China has added a further 19 tonnes to its official holdings of gold. This supports our view that China’s gold accumulation will continue and that official purchases will be one of... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why this is not the Asian Financial Crisis MK2 The recent depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit against the dollar has left both currencies at levels not seen since 1998, but suggestions that this signals a re-run of the... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Buoyant oil sector supports strong growth in Saudi Arabia Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy continued to grow by over 5% y/y at the end of Q2, supported by strong growth in the oil sector. However, with Iranian oil set to return to the... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update No respite for commodities yet Commodity prices have continued their decline over the past month, with both the GSCI and Bloomberg commodity indices falling to levels last seen in mid-2009. As a result, the gulf between returns... 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly China’s “devaluation” lifts precious metals prices The People’s Bank of China surprised markets on Tuesday by lowering the reference rate that determines the mid-point of the renminbi’s trading band against the US dollar. Although the bank explained... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Will the fall in aluminium prices lead to output cuts? The sharp fall in aluminium prices this year could be expected to lead to output cuts across the industry. But with China’s production less sensitive to prices, output cuts are more likely elsewhere... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further thoughts on the impact of China’s exchange rate shift China’s move to shore up the renminbi suggests that the exchange rate policy changes it announced earlier this week will have little lasting impact on the world economy. Nor will the small step... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q2 World Gold Council Demand Trends In its latest World Demand Trends report, published today, the World Gold Council depicted a challenging time for gold in Q2. Demand was weak across all sectors but supply also fell, meaning that... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Boost to US harvests puts prices under more pressure Higher estimates by the USDA for US corn and soybean production this year (2015/16) have seen crop prices plummet. But with ample world supplies and rising stocks, we think prices can fall further. 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
