Commodities Update Ethanol demand in Brazil to support sugar price Rising ethanol output in Brazil to meet domestic demand should help lift the price of sugar this year. We forecast the benchmark price at end-year at 13.5 US cents per pound, up from 12.3 cents today. 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What's happening to global imbalances? The fall in oil prices and the appreciation of the US dollar will cause global imbalances to widen over the coming years. China’s surplus could rise up the political agenda once more while the euro... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US stocks of oil and gasoline unexpectedly rose again last week. However, the rise in oil stocks was much smaller than in the previous week and the recent fall in oil prices should boost demand... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What next for silver? The price of silver has been a notable casualty of the sell-off in commodity markets in the last few days. This is in line with the traditional pattern of under-performance by silver when the prices... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Supply worries see prices spike and investors turn bullish The past month has seen a huge reversal of investor sentiment towards agricultural commodities. Surging grain and oilseed prices, on account of poor growing conditions in the US and Europe in... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's equity gyrations not such a big deal for commodities The slump in equity prices in China has damaged confidence in global commodity markets, including oil and especially industrial metals. However, we think that the current negativity is overdone. While... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks tread water in June Exchange stocks of some base metals are at very low levels and could be a factor boosting prices later in the year. However, stocks of copper and aluminium, in particular, remain high and will act as... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus China’s impact on the world Structural changes in China’s economy are transforming its economic relationship with the rest of the world, as domestic demand shifts from investment to consumption, outbound tourism surges and the... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Pick-up in food inflation should prove fleeting Inflation is likely to have picked up in June. The knee-jerk response may be to link it to the monsoon, but the rise in headline inflation is due more to the collapse in food prices a year ago... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update New (lower) forecasts for precious metals prices The prices of precious metals have not responded as we had anticipated to the growing risks of a Greek exit (“Grexit”) from the euro. We are therefore revising our end-year forecasts for gold, silver... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update All signs point south for oil prices The combination of a Greek “no” vote, signs of rising US oil production, positive signals of a nuclear deal between Iran and the West as well as slowing Chinese demand for imported oil means that we... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Greek "no" leads us to revise our forecasts for oil and gold Commodity markets have largely responded in the ways we had anticipated to the growing risks of “Grexit”. Oil prices in particular have fallen, undermined also by the prospects of a deal with Iran and... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jun.) The drop in Saudi Arabia’s ‘whole economy’ PMI to a record low last month suggests that growth has slowed in the second quarter. Elsewhere, after a disappointing start to the year, Egypt’s economy is... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Prices struggle as investors stay away A lack of safe-haven flows, despite the crisis in Greece, has left the gold pricevulnerable to the prospect of US interest rate hikes later in the year. Silver hasunderperformed, as is usual when... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Fears about global growth weigh on industrials It was another strong week for the prices of many agricultural commodities as the USDA’s latest report on planting and stocks stoked concerns about a deteriorating supply outlook. However, given high... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising demand and tighter supply to lift arabica prices High Brazilian exports have kept the coffee market well supplied and prices down. But we think lower global stocks and continued demand growth will support prices over the second half of the year. 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
