Japan Economics Update Plunge in oil prices will force BoJ to step up easing Further falls in crude oil prices are making it even harder for the Bank of Japan to hit its inflation target. Despite some sanguine comments from Prime Minister Abe today, we think these price falls... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the latest fall in oil prices mean for Russia? The latest plunge in global oil prices and the associated depreciation of the ruble have added to what was already a bleak picture for the Russian economy and reinforce our view that this year’s... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Oil not the only worry Nigeria’s economy has struggled this year, with the most obvious cause being the recent collapse of global oil prices. But this isn’t the only obstacle to faster growth in Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Don’t bet on further big falls in the Canadian dollar Markets still appear to be speculating on further declines in the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar but, after a 20% decline over the past 12 months, we believe that there is little scope for any... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly China panic spreads The negative sentiment prompted by the slide in the renminbi has been compounded by further weakness in Chinese equities and another soft reading of the country’s manufacturing PMI. What’s more... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Will China become a net-exporter of coal? The depreciation of the Chinese currency alongwith declining consumption and imports of coalhave raised the question of whether China,currently the world’s largest importer of coal, could soon switch... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch A brighter future for gold prices The price of gold has been undermined this year by the strength of the dollar and rising bond yields as the first hike in US interest rates approaches. Indeed, we continue to expect one more dip from... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China, Japan & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) The weak manufacturing PMI reading from China may have been distorted bytemporary factors and the manufacturing sector has yet to feel the full benefit of policyeasing. Nonetheless, today's Chinese... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Norwegian krone? The Norwegian krone has been the worst-performing G-10 currency since the middle of last year – it has lost more than a quarter of its value against the US dollar. Still, given the prospects for the... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sugar prices likely to recover well before soybeans Sugar and soybean prices have followed similar paths in recent years. But while the fundamentals areturning in favour of sugar, the same factors point to further weakness for soybean prices. 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the slump in commodity prices a good recession signal? At face value the plunge in commodity prices over the last year is consistent with a global recession as severe as that in 2008-09. However, this time it almost certainly is different. The latest... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (July) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium productiongrew by nearly 11% y/y in July. But excluding China, output rose by just 1.3% y/y. 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Growing disparities in Gulf fiscal policy The past month has brought further signs of diverging attitudes in the Gulf to dealing with the fiscal headache caused by low oil prices. If media reports are to be believed, the UAE looks set to... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q2) Norway’s Q2 GDP data showed that lower energy prices continued to weigh on the oil and gas sector. But the mainland economy also slowed. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks rose last week as a number of US refineries performed maintenance. But demand for products remained high, meaning stocks of gasoline fell. 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Agricultural prices go into reverse After a generally positive mid-June to mid-July period, the prices of mostagricultural commodities have since gone into reverse, with many sufferingheavy falls. Indeed, six of the eleven commodities... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
