EM Valuations Monitor Commodity currencies may have found a floor Our forecast that the prices of many natural resources will edge a little higher over the next couple of years suggests that the downside for commodity currencies will be limited even after the Fed... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch What, if anything, can futures curves tell us? While there has been much media coverage of the recent falls in oil and copper prices, the simultaneous slide in the prices of lead and zinc has not been so well documented. In this Metals & Mining... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US interest rates just one factor driving commodity prices The conventional wisdom is that the outlook for US interest rates will be critical in determining the prospects for commodity prices over the next few years. Indeed, some commentators seem to base... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Have fossil fuels burnt out? Fossil fuels should continue to be the world’s most important energy source for the foreseeable future. However, renewable energy production will grow rapidly and become an increasingly large part of... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update REE supply cuts set to push up prices Low rare earths (REE) prices seem to be pushing up China’s exports as previously-delayed purchases are ramped up. However, recent pledges by a number of Chinese REE producers that they would smelt... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China’s gold imports (Sep.) Mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong rose in September for the third consecutive month. We expect total imports by China to continue their upward trend in the remainder of the year and imports... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Efforts to restrict gold imports likely to have limited success India’s two new schemes aimed at reducing gold imports, due to be rolled out next month, are likely to have mixed results. The Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme’s easy accessibility and more transparent... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound devalued, likely to fall further The Egyptian pound was devalued, albeit modestly, over the past few weeks and, while the central bank has brought this process to a halt, we think a further fall in the currency is likely over the... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Dollar strength and supply worries weigh again The mood in commodity markets soured once more in the past week, with any positive developments outweighed by the negatives, including renewed US dollar strength, OPEC disunity, high US oil stocks and... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch What to watch in the oil market The oil market is inundated with thousands of different statistics regarding production, consumption and trade on a daily basis. In this Energy Watch we pick five figures which we consider to be the... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (1st Oct. - 16th Oct.) Data released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, showed that the volume of cane harvested in Brazil’s main South-Central region fell to 36.1 million tonnes, from 40.5 million in... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore prices to fall further on strong supply The ongoing ramp up in supply and ever-lower cash costs at the major producers suggest that the iron ore market will remain well supplied. With subdued steel demand and output, we expect prices to... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Asia Cocoa Grindings (Q3) Data on Asia’s cocoa grindings revealed a 1.6% y/y decline in Q3, the fifth consecutive y/y fall. This follows data released last week which showed a decrease in overall European and North American... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver price to benefit from industrial metals output cuts Production cuts in the copper and zinc industries will also translate into lower silver supply over the next few years. We expect silver output to be broadly flat in 2015 and to fall by 3% in 2016... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil producers adjusting to new reality The collapse of oil prices since mid-2014 has exposed the huge variation in the public finances of the world’s major oil exporters. Poorly managed emerging economies such as Russia and Venezuela had... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weaker dollar helps to lift prices The US Federal Reserve’s decision not to raise interest rates in September has seen the dollar weaken recently. As a result, the strengthening of a number of currencies against the greenback... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
