US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Consumer prices fell by 0.1% m/m in December, principally thanks to a 4.0% m/m decline in gasoline prices and, with crude oil prices now below $30 a barrel, we can expect even bigger falls in the... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Dec. & 2015) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global output grew by just over 1% y/y in December. Excluding China, output rose by nearly 2% y/y. 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s aluminium stockpiling scheme just a short-term fix We don’t expect China’s recently-announced aluminium stockpiling scheme to provide prices with anything more than a temporary boost. Indeed, depending on how the scheme is implemented, it could... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production dips in December OPEC production slipped in December, led by Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, but the group’s output is still near record highs. Even though demand is set to grow by over 1m bpd this year and non-OPEC supply... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Lifting of Iran sanctions not a game-changer for oil Confirmation that Western sanctions linked to Iran’s nuclear programme are to be lifted might be expected to add to the downward pressure on oil prices, but there are three main reasons why the impact... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policy response pushes economy towards crisis Low oil prices are battering Nigeria’s export-dependent economy. But it’s the government’s market-distorting response that risks pushing the country into a Venezuela-style crisis. 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran sanctions relief: assessing the impact Sanctions relief should support a revival of Iran’s economy and a short period in which it enjoys growth of as much as 6-8%. But there is unlikely to be much impact on the rest of the region, either... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil price slide increases chances of a V-shaped rebound After another poor start, the prices of industrial commodities ended the week on the up. The main positives were hints of additional monetary policy support from the ECB and the absence of any more... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel’s travails are not over yet Although we are broadly positive on the outlook for industrial metals prices in 2016, it is hard to find the upbeat narrative for nickel. Demand is weak and stocks are high. That said , we do expect... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update How low can oil prices go? Brent’s renewed slide below $30 per barrel today has led to another wave of speculation about how much further oil prices could fall. For some time our view has been that the near-term risks are... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Lower oil prices won’t reverse inflation’s return December’s consumer prices figures should confirm that the UK’s brief period of deflation is over, by showing the second consecutive month of positive CPI inflation. What’s more, the recent further... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fuel subsidy issue still unresolved Reports of the end of Nigeria’s costly fuel subsidy scheme are greatly exaggerated. We expect that fuel distributors will require another costly bailout in 2016, which will add to Nigeria’s wide... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sugar prices to extend recovery in 2016 Although expectations for the current 2015/16 Brazilian crop have been revised higher, smaller harvests elsewhere and a receding threat of Indian exports mean that we are maintaining our forecast that... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Falling petrol prices offer some comfort The latest falls in equity and commodity prices have not dealt a big blow to the Australian economy, especially when lower petrol prices are boosting households’ real incomes. Nonetheless, should... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi privatisations point to gradual adjustment to cheap oil A privatisation drive in Saudi Arabia looks increasingly likely and we estimate that the government might be able to raise between $75bn and $100bn (12-15% of GDP) from asset sales. This wouldn’t be... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Watch What are cost curves telling us about precious metals? Cost curves are a widely-used tool to determine the potential direction of commodities production and prices. Given the weakness in the latter over the last few years, cost curves are currently of... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
