Commodities Update Lower soy oil premium to undermine China’s palm oil demand Despite a slump in Malaysian exports to China, overall Chinese palm oil demand has remained strong. However, the increased competitiveness of soy oil is likely to weigh on Chinese demand for imported... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update How big a deal is the agreement to freeze oil output? The oil markets have given a lukewarm response to the tentative deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia to hold their output at its January levels. We are wary too, as it was unlikely that either country... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Precious metals regain their lustre After a weak start to the year, precious metals prices surged last month, bolstered by a weaker US dollar. Gold and silver continued to benefit from safe-haven demand as global equity prices tumbled... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Risks of major renminbi devaluation are exaggerated The lack of clarity in China’s data and clumsy communication of policy changes have allowed many scare stories to proliferate. Nonetheless, there is little justification for fears that the renminbi is... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slow start to the year for China’s commodity imports China’s overall commodity import volumes increased in January, but dipped for some key commodities. However, the seasonal disruption associated with the Lunar New Year holiday was probably behind some... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Resilience of industrial commodity prices reassuring Given the negativity in global equity markets, the relative stability of industrial commodity prices (especially metals) over the last few weeks has been reassuring. Even Brent crude, while slipping... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities weather global market turmoil relatively well For most of the last few months the headlines have been dominated by the rout in commodity prices. More recently, the focus has understandably shifted to the bear markets in equities. Nonetheless, the... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver to outperform gold in 2016 While subdued industrial demand has been one of the main reasons behind the weakness in silver prices over the last few years, 2016 could be the turning point. Indeed, a recovery in the global... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Have the gold schemes been a success? The government’s two new schemes aimed at reducing gold imports have had mixed results in their early stages. The Gold Monetisation Scheme has attracted little interest, while the Sovereign Gold Bond... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update 2015 World Gold Council Demand Trends In its latest World Demand Trends report, published today, the World Gold Council described a strong end to last year for gold demand, as a disappointing H1 gave way to robust growth in the second... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Resilient production could keep oil prices lower for longer Even though we continue to think that oil prices will finish the year much higher than they started it, there is a growing risk that US shale producers will continue to defy forecasts of their demise. 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update What, if anything, can copper price arbitrage activity tell us? The recent strength in China’s copper imports has been dismissed by many commentators as a response to an import arbitrage opportunity, rather than as a sign of a pick-up in demand. While the... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Stocks of crude oil fell slightly last week, while gasoline stocks continued to rise, albeit at a slower pace. The key driver of the dip in crude stocks was a sharp drop in net imports. A small... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Watch OPEC production rose in January as output rebounded after December’s small fall. Even though demand is set to grow by over 1m bpd this year and non-OPEC supply should fall, bulging stocks and high... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More misery for world wheat market Upward revisions by the USDA to its estimates for world end-year wheat and soybean stocks have only added to the gloomy outlook for prices, which we think are likely to ease further this year. 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Global central banks continue to add gold to their reserves Global central banks increased their gold reserves in December, with China and Russia once again particularly active. We expect further official purchases to continue to be one of several factors... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
