Emerging Markets Economics Update EM commodity slowdown: cyclical or structural? The slump in growth in EM commodity producers partly reflects a deterioration in potential growth rates in these economies but is mainly the result of cyclical weakness caused by a collapse in their... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Tin finds favour with investors While supply is clearly tightening, the outlook for tin demand is still uncertain. As such, improved investor sentiment seems to explain much of the latest rally in the tin price, making it... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Goldilocks eats the bears... Some “just right” US economic data, with activity and inflation neither too hot nor too cold, has boosted the prices of equities and commodities this week. What’s more, the gold price has resumed its... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update New (higher) forecasts for gold and silver We already had a relatively positive view on the outlook for precious metals. However, two new developments have encouraged us to revise up our medium-term projections for the price of gold and, as a... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack A turn in sentiment or a “false dawn”? The prices of industrial metals rose in February. In the first half of the month, the combination of lower US interest rate expectations and some weakness in the dollar appeared to be supporting... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver’s underperformance set to reverse soon The recent poor performance of silver is surprising given the resilience of the gold price and the recovery in industrial metals generally. One explanation is that reduced safe-haven demand has... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Agriculturals can’t shake that sinking feeling While a weaker US dollar was a supporting factor for energy, industrial and precious metals commodities last month, it couldn’t stop the S&P GSCI Agriculture index continuing its downhill slide. The... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks jumped by the most in eleven months last week. However, this was mainly driven by a surge in imports which offset a fall in crude production and rise in refinery inputs. Meanwhile... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold starting to benefit from demand for inflation hedges The ongoing tussle between gold bulls and bears often boils down to a view on the outlook for US interest rates. If the Fed resumes its tightening soon as global risks fade, supporting the dollar, the... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Industrial commodities bounce back Commodity prices generally enjoyed a month in the black in February, with three of the four sub-indices posting gains. A weaker US dollar was a supporting factor, although it couldn’t prevent the... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Higher Japanese coal demand won't stop prices falling The restart of Japan's nuclear power plants is likely to reduce the country's demand for oil and gas while also allowing a rebalancing of the remaining consumption of fossil fuels towards coal... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update February PMI data sound a note of caution For the most part, industrial commodity prices have stabilised or, in many cases, been rising recently. However, today’s manufacturing PMI data for February suggest that activity was subdued in China... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Has weak global demand contributed to the fall in US grain exports? Several years of bumper global harvests have seen a sustained downward trend in the prices of corn and wheat. At the same time, US exports of both crops have slumped in the current 2015/16 marketing... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Will China become a major metals exporter? It is often easy to forget that China is not only the largest single consumer of metals but, in many cases, also the dominant producer. Of course, in recent years, strong growth in demand meant that... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Will South Africa suffer Brazil’s fate? The main reason why South Africa has not followed Brazil into a deep recession is that the shock to its terms of trade has been less extreme. Our core view is that South Africa faces an extended... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Markets view glass as half-full Aside from a rebound in the cost of sugar prompted by lower production forecasts, the key driver of most commodity prices this past week has been an improvement in sentiment in global financial... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
