Commodities Weekly Prices vulnerable to a reassessment of US rate outlook Despite a spectacular 287,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, Fed funds futures are still only pricing in a 50% chance of a US interest rate hike by the end of 2017. This dovish spin allowed the... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update How could Brexit affect North Sea oil production? The slump in oil prices since 2014 poses a bigger threat to North Sea output than the UK’s vote to leave the EU (‘Brexit’). However, heightened uncertainty, potential tax changes and the possibility... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (7th Jul. 16) US crude and gasoline stocks fell again last week, but the dramatic fall in US crude oil production has stolen at least some of the limelight. 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Weakness in official sector’s gold buying to be short-lived The latest data suggest that gold demand from the official sector remained subdued in May. However, we expect this to be only temporary as central banks continue to diversify away from the US dollar... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Will ‘Brexit’ drive a new bull market in gold? The UK’s decision to vote in favour of leaving the European Union in a nationwide referendum on 23 rd June – or ‘Brexit’ – has already boosted the prices of precious metals. The prospects for both... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Palm oil prices to fall further The price of palm oil rallied strongly in early 2016 on a combination of smaller harvests, rising soybean (and soy oil) prices and a rally in crude oil prices. These factors more than offset the... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Coal supply to fall further this year, but so should demand The rally in coal prices over the past month has boosted investor sentiment. Admittedly, production in China, the US and Indonesia has finally started to fall. But prices have now risen to levels... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Aluminium demand is stronger than often thought We are now even more positive on aluminium demand in the near-term, based partly on our new Capital Economics Demand Proxy, but believe that supply growth will put a lid on prices by end-year. 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Prices rally into July The prices of both industrial and precious metals have jumped in the last month, despite falling initially in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU on 23rd June. Prices subsequently recovered on... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Brexit vote has a silver lining The price of gold has predictably done well in the wake of the UK’s surprise vote to leave the EU (‘Brexit’). But the real star of the show has been silver, whose price has already jumped by nearly 20... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities brush off Brexit blues Commodities outperformed equities in June as the UK’s surprise vote to leave the European Union sapped risk appetite in global markets. Gold prices predictably benefited from the heightened... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Will silver continue to outshine gold? The price of gold has predictably done well in the wake of the UK’s surprise vote to leave the EU (‘Brexit’). But the real star of the show has been silver, whose price has already jumped by 20% in US... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China concerns could soon replace Brexit fears With fears over the impact of the UK’s potential exit from the EU having faded, the focus of commodity markets may soon return to China’s economy and currency. The third successive monthly fall in... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Falling oil supplies trump Brexit concerns The sharp drops in the prices of riskier assets, including oil, after the UK voted to leave the EU have dominated headlines. However, oil prices are now more or less back to their pre-Brexit levels... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) The muted 0.1% m/m gain in real GDP in April, while in line with consensus expectations, is disappointing since it follows contractions in both February and March. Furthermore, the raging wildfires... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why have equity markets rebounded after the Brexit vote? There are several plausible reasons why the prices of equities and other riskier assets have recovered after the UK’s vote to leave the EU. Some of these may be temporary, notably short covering. More... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
