Global Economic Outlook Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty The global economy seems to be heading into recovery mode as the adverse effects of the previous surge in inflation subside. Real incomes are recovering in most advanced economies and China is feeling... 27th June 2024 · 46 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Tight fiscal policy to constrain the recovery Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal... 27th June 2024 · 19 mins read
Commodities Outlook Commodity prices to fall back We forecast most commodities prices to fall next year – despite falling interest rates and faster global GDP growth – as numerous supply constraints ease and a crunch in Chinese construction begins to... 27th June 2024 · 21 mins read
Event Drop-In: Commodities Outlook – Where next for energy, gold and industrial metals prices? 1719909000 Will China’s economy continue supporting metals demand? What would Donald Trump’s re-election mean for energy markets?
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (June 2024) Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the... 25th June 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Metals prices still on shaky ground This week's weaker-than-expected activity data in China seems to be at odds with the broadly flat or slight increases in base metals prices this week. The big picture however is, that the data... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What La Niña means for Latin America There is a growing chance of a La Niña weather pattern taking hold in the second half of this year. While the economic effects would depend on its severity and length, La Niña events tend to coincide... 20th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook GDP growth pick-up on a fragile footing Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the... 18th June 2024 · 20 mins read
Commodities Update A primer on the EU’s deforestation regulation The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will rejig the way commodity imports enter the EU when it comes into force later this year and could lead to premiums for compliant commodities over non... 17th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Peak oil debate slightly misses the point The focus in oil markets this week was on the long term with the IEA predicting that oil demand will peak in 2029 while OPEC argued there is no peak in sight. In any case, when the peak occurs is only... 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Emissions in China are close to a turning point China’s rapid uptake of clean power means that it is on track to overachieve on its target of reaching peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030. That said, the pace of decline will be slow at first... 13th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Energy Update The timelines and trajectories of peak fossil fuel demand The green transition and the accompanying rollout of renewables means that global coal demand could peak this year, followed by oil around 2030. Meanwhile, the importance of natural gas as a... 12th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Commodity-exposed stock markets may disappoint Although we expect equities in general to fare well over the next year or so, we think that falls in most commodity prices will weigh on the energy and materials sectors. That would be bad news for... 10th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s energy sector at a turning point? Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s strong environmental credentials mean that a shift away from fossil fuels and towards renewables is likely during her tenure. We doubt that she’ll fully... 10th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ temporarily sinks oil prices The decision by OPEC+ last Sunday to increase output from October caught investors by surprise and sent oil prices sinking to below $78 per barrel early in the week. Ahead of the meeting, investors... 7th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Attention turns towards the return of La Niña A return of La Niña could provide some respite for those commodity producers who have been hit hardest by El Niño. But it could also pose problems for others – not least in South America – and so... 6th June 2024 · 3 mins read
