Commodities Chart Pack Trump and China boost metals prices Hurricane Harvey severly disrupted oil production, refining and trade in the US at the end of August. The US government was even forced to release crude supplies from its strategic reserve. Meanwhile... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to strong industrial output in August While stronger manufacturing PMI readings imply an acceleration in industrial activity in August, we don’t think that the upturn will be sustained given the increasing headwinds from policy tightening... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold to benefit from high geopolitical risks Elevated geopolitical risks and expectations that the Fed will only raise interest rates slightly this year and next have buoyed the price of gold. While we have revised up our end-2017 forecast to... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A sharp drop in imports and jump in demand from refineries helped to drain stocks last week. But the market’s focus remains on the impact of Hurricane Harvey. 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Brent-WTI spread likely to narrow Higher crude exports, falling stocks and the return of refineries shuttered by Hurricane Harvey should all help to boost WTI prices and narrow the Brent-WTI spread over the rest of the year. 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Metals on a roll The prices of most commodities – notably industrial metals – rose this week. While fundamentals have been supportive, we think that the most recent rallies in prices have been exaggerated by... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jul.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.6% y/y rise in global steel production in January-July, with output rising in all major producers bar Japan. 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India gold imports (Jul.) The latest trade data for India and China show that gold imports started Q3 on a soft note. We think that demand will continue to weaken in the remainder of the year as slower growth in China and a... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investors exaggerate move in metals prices Whilst fundamentals have played a role in the most recent rallies in industrial metals, we think that speculative activity has exacerbated the move up in prices. In some cases – notably copper –... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another fall in US crude stocks means that inventories are now about 30 million barrels below last year’s level. Crude stocks are likely to continue to fall over the next few months as demand remains... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery to strengthen over coming year After a torrid couple of years, the economies of Latin America have turned a corner and we expect growth to strengthen over the rest of 2017 and into 2018. Inflation has fallen in most countries and... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update No shortage of tin now! The ongoing surge in ShFE tin stocks was the main story in the last month. In fact, inventories of most ShFE metals have risen in the last four weeks, while stocks of nearly all the LME metals have... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Will other central banks follow Bank Indonesia? Despite the current subdued rates of inflation across most of Emerging Asia, we don’t expect many of the region’s central banks to copy Bank Indonesia, which yesterday surprised markets by cutting... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Growing supply will limit any gains in oil prices this year Crude oil prices have risen over the last month as demand has picked up and stocks have tumbled. However, supply, especially from Nigeria, Libya and the US has risen rapidly. This Energy Watch looks... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus What are the implications of geopolitical risk for commodities? The increasing frequency of terrorist attacks and international conflicts has prompted a spike in geopolitical risk in recent years. We find that, among commodities, gold and Brent offer the best... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update North Korea sanctions should not have much market impact Some commentators are justifying the recent surge in a number of industrial commodity prices on the prospect of lower available supply as a result of the latest sanctions on North Korea. However, we... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
