Energy Update Iran’s oil exports unlikely to fall any time soon President Trump’s refusal to waive sanctions on Iran’s oil industry has given a boost to oil prices, but it is not a given that Congress will reinstate sanctions and support from international... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on China The more industrial commodities have had a good week, which was vindicated to some extent on Friday by data showing a surge in China’s commodity imports in September. Meanwhile, the minutes from the... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybeans steal the show The US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s latest set of estimates painted a more mixed picture this month. While the report was perceived as bearish for wheat and cotton, soybeans and corn rallied on... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A bumper month for China’s commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes surged in September. However, this could reflect a final push at the local level to boost activity ahead of the Party Congress this month. As such, import volumes... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Last week’s reduction in US crude stocks was mainly owing to lower production and a recovery in refinery inputs. Stocks are likely to continue to fall over the next few weeks as demand gains momentum. 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf likely to shrug off calls for deeper oil output cuts Oil policy in the Gulf has been thrust back into the spotlight after the Saudi government disclosed details of Aramco’s export allocations for November. But there is less to this than meets the eye... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Making sense of Africa’s statistical muddle Sceptics are right to question the reliability of official economic statistics in Africa, but the problems unevenly distributed across the region. For Africa’s larger economies, we think that the... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update LNG rally may run out of steam Temporary supply disruptions and strong demand in Asia have boosted LNG prices to an almost 9-month high. However, the rally may soon lose momentum as winter demand looks set to peak at a time of... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch Oil market showing more signs of tightening OPEC production rose last month due to increases in Libya and Nigeria. However, estimates of slower non-OPEC output growth and stronger demand offer some hope for rebalancing. 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: mining downturn should soon bottom out We estimate that a fall in mining output shaved about 0.4%-pts off annual GDP growth in Mexico in Q3. Mining output should stabilise over the coming year, but we doubt that reforms to the sector will... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update India’s gold demand to remain soft The Indian government’s decision to reverse an order that brought the gem & jewellery sector under anti-money laundering legislation is certainly good news for the gold industry. That said, demand is... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will US oil exports really help rebalance the market? The collapse in US net oil imports over the last few weeks has helped to draw down crude inventories in the country. This has raised hopes that market rebalancing is accelerating and has been one... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Does the rally in alumina prices have legs? The jump in alumina prices is probably premised largely on the prospect of winter capacity closures in China. But given that aluminium production could also fall, the market may not be as tight as it... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly A busy week ahead … It was a relatively quiet week on the news front, at least until the US labour data on Friday. The 33,000 drop in non-farm payrolls came as a surprise, even though markets had expected hurricane... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Watch What are auto sales telling us about metals demand? Vehicles are a growing source of demand for metals, including platinum group metals (PGMs), zinc, aluminium, steel, nickel and copper. In this Metals Watch we look at the latest trends in global auto... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Should the oil market worry about sanctions on Iran? If President Trump refuses to waive the sanctions on Iran’s oil exports then we would expect oil prices to rise. However, it is not clear that Congress would vote to re-impose sanctions on the country... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
